Cazana’s new website to help the war on COVID-19

Introducing KeyworkerGarages.co.uk

The team at Cazana today launched KeyworkerGarages.co.uk  to help all those who are on the front line fighting COVID-19 stay mobile during these unprecedented times. This is a free website that contains vital information on the service centres that are still offering motor support services to key workers.

If you are an NHS worker, police, delivery driver etc. in need of vehicle services (maintenance, repair, tyres etc) all you need do is enter your postcode and the website will show you the nearest open service centre including opening hours and contact details to get your vehicle booked in as soon as possible.

Despite many business shutdowns, there are still millions of keyworkers, volunteers and support staff who need their vehicles repaired and there are a number of service centres staying open to support this group and willing to help! The team at Cazana have collated the data of open service centres from their partner dealers that remain open. Cazana encourages any centres not listed to submit their details on the site and help us to keep this website up to date to give keyworkers a definitive list of locations that can help.

Tom Wood at Cazana commented:

“This is a challenging time for both the automotive industry and all those who are on the front line fighting this pandemic and we wanted to do something as a team to help both the nation’s essential keyworkers and the dealer service departments remaining open. I’m massively proud of the team here at Cazana who have been collecting data and have built this new site over the past week with the intention of helping people to stay mobile during this crisis”.

For more information, please visit KeyworkerGarages.co.uk. Please help us get the word out about this website so we can ensure that those who need to be on the road during this pandemic keep mobile.

Cazana’s Rustmap – rusty cars and where to find them

Over the last 6 months, there has been an array of bad weather conditions including one hurricane (Ophelia) and 21 storms in the UK including the more notable ones such as Storm Brian, Storm Georgina and Storm Aileen. All of this rainfall and harsh weather takes an unfortunate toll on our vehicles.

With this in mind, we have searched the extensive Cazana database and highlighted the counties in the UK that have the highest proportion of rusty cars, and identified which are the most rust prone. This was identified by looking at the volume of cars that have rust and corrosion warnings noted on MOT data.

It will come as no surprise that 5 of the rustiest counties for car owners in the UK are situated in Scotland where the weather conditions can often be harsher.

Top 10 rustiest counties in the UK for car owners

Here you have it, the worst offending counties for rusty cars.

Another unsurprising fact is that the top 3 counties with the highest proportion of rusty cars are close to the sea. While living close to the ocean may look stunning and have so many wonderful perks, unfortunately, it can be a tougher environment for cars. Certain environmental factors such as salt and fog near the coast can cause rust on a vehicle and accelerate vehicle corrosion.

  1. West Dunbartonshire, Scotland
  2. Fife, Scotland
  3. Northumberland, North East England
  4. Roxburghshire, Scotland
  5. Banffshire, Scotland
  6. Midlothian, Scotland
  7. Herefordshire, West Midlands
  8. Durham, Central England
  9. Lincolnshire, Central England
  10. Yorkshire, Northern England

Other counties that are high on the list include Lanarkshire, West Lothian, Angus and Flintshire. There is a clear pattern of either being close to the sea and somewhere where the weather conditions are tougher.

The counties with the lowest proportion of rusty cars

So in contrast to the list above, the counties with the lowest volume of rusty cars are mostly in the south and Wales.

  1. Antrim, Northern Ireland
  2. Middlesex, South East England
  3. Hampshire, South England
  4. Oxfordshire, South East England
  5. Surrey, South East England
  6. Denbighshire, North East Wales
  7. Kent, South East England
  8. Caernarfonshire, Wales

The top 10 rustiest cars in the UK

It’s surprising to see the nations favourite Ford Fiesta on here and not only that but it is top of the list. With so many on our roads and often older it is possible that they are also less well cared for. Land Rover and Jeep, however, are not as surprising to see on this list as they are often used heavily in off-road conditions where water and dirt are commonplace.

  1. Ford Fiesta
  2. Vauxhall Corsa
  3. Land Rover Range Rover Sport
  4. Ford StreetKa
  5. Toyota Rav-4
  6. Jeep Wrangler
  7. Volkswagen Polo Hatch
  8. MINI Hatchback
  9.  Ford Ka
  10. Fiat Grande Punto

What are the main causes of rust in vehicles?

rusty car in the sea

Rust is the reddish-brown/yellow colour that coats iron or steel when exposed to air and moisture. Our vehicles can be a big investment and financial commitment and to ensure we protect them we need to first understand what the main causes of rust are.

  • Location  

As fun as living near the coast is, as we mentioned above, it can take a toll on your car. Both the salt and moisture (water) in the air can cause vehicles to rust. Therefore it is no surprise that 6 out of the top 10 rustiest counties in this list are close to the sea.

  • Salt

Most road users in colder places will use salt to get rid of ice and snow from their vehicles and it is also used extensively to keep the roads clear. However, lengthy exposure to salt can be harmful to vehicles and make them more susceptible to corrosion as it gets caught in the nooks and crannies of the car.

  • Weather conditions

As we already mentioned water and moisture is a big cause of rust on and in cars. Rain, snow and fog are big factors in why our cars rust and corrode over time.

  • Neglect

Like anything in life if we ignore a bad situation it will eventually get worse. Not checking your car regularly and not keeping up with maintenance and more important cleanliness will cause minor instances of rust to flourish and turn into more serious issues.

Top 6 ways to prevent rust in vehicles

prevent rust in vehicles

  1. Regular maintenance. This may sound obvious but keep up with regular repairs as it can make all the difference when something is caught early.
  2. Inspect your car regularly and act on what you find covering body scratches and dings as quickly as possible
  3. Wash your car regularly. Make sure wheel arches and the underbody are regularly cleaned.
  4. Keep your car in a sheltered area. If you are lucky enough to have a garage or sheltered area to park make sure you use it to help protect your car from harsh weather conditions. If you don’t have a sheltered place to park then consider getting a car cover.
  5. Wax. Get your vehicle waxed twice a year (especially if you live near the seaside) and consider having a body protection treatment added.  
  6. Keep the inside of your car clean too. Don’t just wash the outside of the car, keep the interiors clean as well especially during Winter when there is more salt on the roads.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

The first week of August saw a marginal shift in the retail market with footfall at the retailers and online enquiries slightly down on the levels of recent weeks. Firstly, this is hardly surprising given it is the holiday season and secondly the improvement in the weather, that looks set to continue throughout the month, has given consumers the incentive to spend a little time on holiday rather than staying at home. The retail price shift across the market as a whole was a decline of -0.13% in the average price of a retail advertised car. That represents a drop of just £22 per unit where the average price of a car across the whole market is now £17,303.

Whilst this drop-in price is hardly noticeable in some people eyes, across a retailer group this dip would have made a costly difference. This should also serve as a market yardstick and one that should be watched closely going forward to avoid financial challenges as the market shifts as is expected later in the year. It is also worth noting that whilst analysing the data it is clear that there is a much higher level of pricing volatility. The propensity for certain fuel types within different market sectors to show big pricing swings from one week to the next is another indicator that the coming weeks might be a little more challenging than of late.

The chart below looks at what has happened to retail pricing by market profile comparing last week against the previous week.

Whole Market Price Change as a % by Market Sector Profile W/c - 27/07 against W/c - 03/08

Data powered by Cazana

This chart gives clarity to where pricing increased and decreased in the last week. The blue bars show the week on week shift in retail pricing as a percentage and this shows that retail pricing at opposite ends of the market profiles are on the increase once more, whilst mid profile cars have also shown minimal improvement. It also highlights that pricing for some key profiles has dropped, with the most significant decline being experienced in the Ex Fleet Old profile representing cars of 4 to 6 years in age. The fact that there are four profiles, that show a drop-in pricing indicates that either supply of used cars has improved, or that there is less consumer demand and therefore a need to move screen pricing to attract buyers.

The orange line qualifies the proportion of the market that each profile represents from the whole market advertising data and puts context to the relevance of the rise and fall of the pricing. As such where the Ex Fleet Old pricing has dropped by -1.02% it is clear that this profile represents just 0.7% of all retail asking price data and whilst it is important to acknowledge this drop, the price shift is therefore of less significance than the -0.57% and -0.56% drops experienced in the Late and Low and Part Exchange profiles that account for 34.7% and 33.9% of the total market respectively. This means that it is evident that retail pricing has declined across age profiles that account for just over 76% of the retail advertising market overall.

The grey bars show the change by percentage in the market penetration by profile and adding this to the previous data highlights a further dimension. As such where pricing has decreased for the Late and Low profile, the volume of cars in the market has also declined. Conversely, the drop in the Part Exchange profile pricing actually comes where there is an increase in the number of retail advertised cars. The only way to fully understand the impact of this insight is to look at the data in more detail using the Cazana reporting tools and bespoke insight.

For this period the largest pricing increase by profile came for Old Car profile consisting of cars over 10 years old. The chart below looks at some background to pricing activity by fuel type in the Old car profile to put some context behind where the pricing increase came from.

Retail Price Movements - Old Car Market Profile against Whole Market Market Profile by Fuel Type W/c - 27/07 against W/c - 03/08

Data powered by Cazana

This chart highlights that petrol-powered cars have seen the largest increase in pricing at 3.35% in the Old car profile. This follows the whole market retail price increase of 1.14% and it would seem that for this week petrol-powered cars have gained the most retail price value. It is also of note that Hybrid cars also show a nominal increase in retail price. The “other” fuel type represents the small number of LPG, CNG and Bio Ethanol cars on sale in this profile and the volumes are as expected particularly low.

It must be acknowledged that as mentioned earlier the pricing data has become more volatile and the increase in petrol pricing in the Old Car profile has been heavily influenced by an increase of 9.8% for the small volume of old petrol cars in the luxury car sector. Conversely, the diesel pricing has been adversely affected by a decline of -5.15% for old diesel cars in the sports car sector. There is less volatility in the age profile for Hybrid cars as volumes for this fuel type is also quite low in volume.

To summarise, it would seem that there has been a subtle shift in the market both from a consumer demand and pricing perspective. At this point, there would appear to be little to be concerned about, but it is key to ensure that all market insight is analysed in detail to make sure there is a full understanding of market conditions. This, in turn, will drive the very best margins and ROI. Cazana are the only data provider able to give that up to the moment realtime whole market data-based insight with no manual editing and subjective decisioning overlaid.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Used car sales activity in the final week of July largely continued to mirror the level of demand experienced in recent weeks which means that the retailers have enjoyed another period of good trading. There have been some subtle shifts though and these whilst not of concern right now, need to be monitored closely in case the market begins to shift.

The logistics supply chain continues to improve and as such there has been a further increase in the availability of used stock across the wholesale market. This has resulted in a better supply of used car stock which means greater stock levels on the forecourts resulting in a wider choice of cars for the consumer to choose from. Under normal trading conditions this improvement in availability would mean that pricing might soften for certain types of cars although at this point this action seems to be unnecessary and the retailers should be in no rush to take adverse pricing action for the time being.

The retail consumer is still very active which is great news, and this is in part due to a level of renewed consumer confidence but also directly related to the improved level of digital engagement by the retailers. There is little doubt that industry continues to implement new and better ways to attract buyers and the COVID lockdown period has highlighted the need to grab online interest as swiftly as possible and engage the customer in a seamless mouse to house journey.

From a retail pricing perspective, the chart below highlights pricing movements by key age and market profile in the last week compared to the previous week.

Whole-Market-Price-Change-as-a-by-Market-Sector-Profile-Wc-2007-against-Wc-2707

Data powered by Cazana

Whilst at first sight this chart is complicated, it is very effective at showing the current state of pricing. The blue bars on the chart show the retail pricing movement as a % change on the previous week. As such it is clear that 3 age profiles have shown a decline in pricing. Late and Low, Ex Fleet and Old Cars have recorded a drop of up to 0.4% and whilst no immediate conclusions should be drawn by this insight, the detail needs to be analysed further to highlight where the issues lie.

It is worth noting that the drop-in pricing for the Late and Low sector and the Old Car profile is the second consecutive weeks downward move. In the case of the Old Car profile a quick look at the data reveals that Old petrol-powered luxury cars experienced a drop-in pricing of just over 8% and this has dragged the sector average down. Excluding these cars would have resulted in an increase in pricing of 0.78% however this just emphasises the importance of realtime retail driven insight.

The orange line represents the percentage share of the retail advertising market held by each age profile. This shows that the greatest volume of retail adverts can be found in the Part Exchange and Late and Low profiles. The grey bars complement this sector qualification by showing the shift as a % week on week in the volume of vehicles advertised. The latest data highlights a marked increase in volume of the number of cars in the part exchange profile. This is interesting as not only has there been an increase in the volume of retail adverts but there has also been an increase in retail pricing. This piece of insight is very valuable right now.

Whilst the largest pricing increase by profile came for Pre Reg-cars off the back of an 11.4% improvement in new car registrations during July the chart below looks at some background to pricing activity by fuel type in the Part Exchange profile to put some context behind where the pricing increase came from.

Retail Price Movements - Part Exchange Market Profile against Whole Market Profile by Fuel Type  W/c - 20/07 against W/c - 27/07

Data powered by Cazana

This chart is very interesting as it highlights the fact that petrol pricing is the only pricing that is moving downwards. Looking at the detail and it is evident that this is happening in several different market sectors within the age profile and it is key that this trend is monitored more closely and on a regular basis. This is not to say that it is wrong to buy this type of car or indeed that there is no market for them but it is just important for retailers to ensure that they are fully aware of what to expect during the time the vehicle is in stock and tailor margin expectations accordingly.

On a positive note the increase in Electric powered car prices is of interest. These vehicles are in low supply at this age, but the pricing increase in this profile highlights that there may be good retail consumer demand. This trend ties in with anecdotal feedback around consumer appetite for lower polluting cars.

In conclusion, the last week has seen good market stability although there are some nuances in the detail behind the headline data. Acknowledging that in the coming weeks consumer demand may alter, and the signs are there already, is vital to use realtime, fact-based insight to tailor commercial plans to match the market conditions. Using retail driven insight will keep buyers and used car managers in control of the buying and pricing functions and ensure that it is possible to drive the very best margin from every car that is bought for retail sale.

At the same time a true understanding of the retail price and consumer demand will mean that part exchange cars and stock not suitable for individual business forecourts can be sold wholesale for the right money. Whilst there are more cars in the trade right now, it is often easy to let an asset go for less than true market value unless there is an understanding of the retail value of the car. Cazana are the only data provider able to give that up to the moment data-based insight with no manual editing and subjective decisioning overlaid.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Activity in the UK automotive sector has continued to improve in the last week despite concerns that demand may ease as the restrictions on mobility and socialising were eased by the Prime Minister. Coupled with the start of the summer holiday season and the break-up of the education programme, there had been consternation that consumers may have shifted their focus away from buying cars and towards expenditure on other social activities including day trips and holidays. To date that has not been the case and retail car buyers have continued to seek to renew their mode of transport with as much enthusiasm as they have since showrooms opened again on June 1st.

Further good news has come from retailers, as it is clear that the logistics side of the industry has been able to get a better grip on vehicle movements whilst wholesalers and auctions have been able to better manage onsite operations and movements of cars. The result has been an improvement in the volume of cars making it to the forecourts and there is no doubt that retail consumers have found more choice at their local dealers who rather than having to advertise stock on their websites as “due in” have now been able to prepare and display the car ready for new owners to view, buy and take away.

Looking at retail price performance and analysing weekly un-edited data from the whole market, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-Wc-1307-against-Wc-2007

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above shows three key metrics to demonstrate the retail pricing activity in the market last week. The blue bars refer to pricing movements for the same period in 2019 as a percentage week on week. This highlights that pricing for cars up to £30k in value were increasing although cars above that price level were experiencing a drop in retail pricing. To be clear the largest price movement was a drop of -.025% so that market was fairly stable.

The orange bars show the pricing movements for 2020 and although the movements by price range only exceeded the biggest move in 2019 by 0.1%, the market behaved differently with larger movements across almost all price ranges. Of note is the fact that in 5 of the 7 price ranges prices declined slightly which is contrary to the price increases experienced in the previous week. The grey line represents the volume of retail adverts in the market by price range. From this data we can see that retail price movements for 78% of the market were negative and the combined reduction in retail pricing for these 2 price ranges was -0.26%. At an average price of £11,433 this suggests that on average the movement was just short of £30 per car.

To put a slightly different perspective on the pricing movements the chart below looks at the retail pricing changes by market profile.

Whole-Market-Price-Change-as-a-by-Market-Sector-Profile-Wc-1307-against-Wc-2007

Data powered by Cazana

This is a detailed chart but provides some invaluable insight. The blue bars show the week on week retail price movement by market profile. The pattern here is interesting showing a drop in pricing for the younger market profiles and also the older cars. The orange line helps qualify the importance of the week on week price move by highlighting the percentage share of retail adverts across the whole market. Finally, the grey bars show the change in the volume of retail advert market share as a percentage week on week.

As such this chart highlights that pricing has dropped across 5 of the market profiles with the only retail price increases in what are essentially the 3 to 4 year-old market profiles. It would also appear that there is a direct correlation between the drop in retail price and those market profiles that have contracted in size. This is perhaps contrary to normal market expectation and as such requires more granular investigation.

When reviewed in tandem with the first chart the data corroborates the drop in pricing of sub £10k cars with the drop in retail pricing for Old cars on the chart above where the average price is £3721. Of note is that this average price has consistently been increasing since the re-opening of the showrooms. It also shows a potential link between the increase in the £10k to £20k car price profile in the first chart and the increase in retail prices in the Ex PCP market profile where the average Price is £19,950.

In summary, the retail market continues to remain stable although retail pricing movement from week to week is very evident. For the modern business it is crucial to acknowledge these shifts, and even more important to identify exactly where the pricing is changing and why. The stability in the data in these charts is encouraging although it must be noted that the number of extreme movements that lie in the detail has increased markedly in recent weeks reflecting the shortage of wholesale stock in the market. Given that the logistics supply chain appears to be overcoming their operational challenges, the volume of wholesale stock is likely to start to balance with demand in coming weeks and the outlier movements may start to decrease. However, the retail consumer demand look set to remain good for the short term further highlighting the need for realtime, retail driven data to ensure maximum ROI on every asset.

 

The Truth Behind BEV and Hybrid Pricing

The COVID-19 outbreak has taught the world many lessons both social and economic and it would be good to think that as a global community, elements of lifestyle and commerce will change for the better going forward. Amongst the many discussion points during this period, the often hotly debated topic of pollution and global warming has featured highly. The worldwide periods of lockdown have brought a true sense of understanding of the issue to many as pollution levels have dropped in major cities worldwide resulting in clearer skies and seas and somewhat ironically a reduction in serious breathing complaints. Those with respiratory issues have been more comfortable and benefitted from the enforced reduction in business and socially related pollution.

Understanding how this affects the automotive industry is critical as the UK government seeks to change the shape of vehicle ownership between now and 2035 when the ban on fossil fuel powered cars comes into effect. New car registration activity has already highlighted the somewhat early demise of the diesel powered car and the table below shows just how swiftly buying patterns have changed.

Data from the SMMT

The chart highlights the drop in diesel car sales so far this year and compounds the fall from grace of a fuel type once heralded as a saviour to pollution issues. At just 18.2% total market share and a drop of 64.9% on 2019, one wonders how this fall from grace has been so swift, specifically given that, on paper, emission levels overall are no worse than a petrol car. The biggest market gains are attributed to the Hybrid and BEV fuel types and this is undoubtedly a good thing in the medium term, as long as these cars are used appropriately although the taxation loophole surrounding business users still needs to be properly dealt with by the government.

The question is: how are these new propulsion types performing in the used car market right now and what will happen going forward? There is little doubt that technological advances in the last 18 months have made these cars more acceptable to the retail consumer and there is also the acknowledgement that hybrid cars are just a stepping-stone to, in the short to medium term, a full BEV. Fuel cell technology still seems some way off and there are challenges to overcome for this fuel type that may take many years to resolve. Discussions continue around how the electric charging infrastructure will cope with the increased volume of BEVs but some of these concerns are being offset by improvements in battery capability and driving range. These advances are eradicating consumer objections over usability and at the same time reducing the regularity of battery replenishment.

The used car market has been slower to embrace hybrid and BEVs in the large part because they are more complicated to both understand and sell. It is often easier for a dealer to sell a petrol or diesel car, particularly the latter as diesel cars offer such favourable fuel usage benefits. Sales staff often take the easy route steering consumers to traditional fuel types rather than learning about the operational functionality of new technology which takes time and patience. With the pressure to sell many vehicles in a short space of time to meet sales targets, it is simple to take the easy traditional sales route and this is not conducive to helping retail customers embrace the new propulsion types.

The chart below focuses on what has happened with BEV and Hybrid Pricing. Looking at the data reveals some interesting pricing trends particularly the year to date insight.

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at 2 time periods and both Hybrid and BEV pricing movements by age profile. The blue and grey bars show immediately that year to date in 2020 BEV and Hybrid pricing has moved downwards overall. When looking at a week on week performance BEVs have stabilised of late with minimal movements either way as shown by the orange bars. Conversely, the yellow bars show a more varied but generally positive performance for the hybrid pricing.

Of note is the change in the Pre Reg position whereby the year to date figure shows a drop in pricing but the week on week data shows a recovery for both fuel types. This is likely to be due to the lack of new car availability and the subsequent reduction in the number of cars being pre-registered combined with retail consumers looking for new BEV and Hybrid cars. The other notable areas of demand appear to be for Ex PCP BEVs and Ex Fleet Hybrids where pricing week on week has risen. This suggests that not only is stock short but demand is strong and consumer interest is clearly positive in reduced emission fuel types.

For some organisations the weakness in retail pricing may come as a surprise although this should not be the case given the prevailing new car market conditions and the increase in popularity with the retail consumer. As demonstrated in the first chart the volume of new car registrations is increasing and this is the required and supported long term trend. With an increase in volume comes the need to find the balance between supply and demand and this is where these fuel types are at the moment.

Historically, both BEV and Hybrid cars have been in shorter supply than demand and the chart below compares the average percentage of cost new from June 2017 against June 2020.

Data powered by Cazana

There is plenty of valuable insight in this chart and starting with the traditional fuel types, it is clear that the whilst late plate petrol cars have improved in residual value terms, 2 and 3 year old cars have seen a reduction in price for both petrol and diesel propelled cars.

The interesting insight lies with the Hybrid and BEV data. Hybrid cars have declined in value for late plate cars by 3 percentage points and by 4 percentage points at 2 years old although at 3 years old there has been an increase in residual values. This scenario suggests that pricing on later plate cars is falling and in all likelihood this is because of an increase in volume coming to the market resulting in the need for more price flexibility. At 3 years old there are less Hybrid examples in the market but demand is still strong which it would seem has resulted in an increase in residual value performance.

In contrast, BEV residual value performance has improved across all ages and this signifies that retail consumer demand may have exceeded supply. At this point, this is perfectly understandable and highlights greater consumer acceptance, although consideration must be given to the fact that this is newer technology at the moment and as volume increases, as it surely will due to the improved registrations, this propulsion type will follow Hybrid and begin to slip towards the levels of traditional fuel types.

The chart shows that Hybrid pricing is declining and the residual value performance as a percentage of cost new is falling towards that of petrol. In 2017, there was a 13 percentage point difference in favour of Hybrid cars and this has now dropped to 6 percentage points. This reflects the fact that the premium for Hybrid cars is not sustainable as volume increases.

To summarize, there is no doubt that demand for both Hybrid and BEVs is strong and the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the benefits of less pollution in our atmosphere to the retail buyer. New car registrations for both fuel types continue to increase as technology advances to give better driving characteristics and ranges. However, retail pricing is beginning to change to reflect the greater volume of product on the retail forecourts and that is particularly evident with Hybrid technology when compared to residual value performance in previous years. As such, despite demand, retail pricing looks set to decline in the mid to long term to bring residual value performance more in line with the traditional fuel types.

The Under £10k Market

There has been much discussion of late around the performance of the sub £10k used car market which has come into its own following the COVID-19 outbreak in March this year.  As restrictions have relaxed in recent weeks and the wider population have been able to return to work and start social activities once again, the spotlight has been on safe travel and quite apart from the fact that public transport is considered to be fairly expensive, and in many cases not particularly clean, car ownership appears to becoming more popular.

Since the reopening of the retailer showrooms at the beginning of June, there has anecdotally been a marked increase in interest in older and cheaper cars and this is a direct result of people looking to travel more safely in their own sealed environment. Cazana has consistently supported the anecdotal feedback with realtime fact-based insight that has shown varying and predominantly positive trends for this age and price range of car. Without seeking dramatic headlines with spurious claims of 25% increases in pricing, the question is how and where the data show the hot spots in the market.

The chart below quantifies the pricing movements in the sub £10k price range since retailers re-opened their doors.

Up to £10k Retail Price Move by % by Sector Since Retailers Opened and also W/c - 06/07 Against the Previous Week

Data powered by Cazana

The blue bars show the % retail price movement since the retailers opened on June 1st through until the week commencing July 6th and it is clear to see that there has been significant movement in three key market sectors. The E or Executive sector has seen the largest improvement in pricing at just over 3.35% closely followed by the MPV sector at 3.47% with the Sports sector following at 1.59%. These movements have not been replicated in quite the same way in the last week, as shown by the orange bars, with the Executive sector showing a slight decline. Of equal interest here is that there has been a drop-in retail pricing for the A or Supermini sector which many thought would see greater demand and an increase in pricing. The other drop in retail pricing came from the F or Luxury sector but this should not be a surprise as these cars can be costly to run and maintain in this price range.

The next chart looks at activity by fuel type:

Up to £10k Retail Price Move by % by Fuel Type Since Retailer Opened and also W/c - July 6th against Previous Week

Data powered by Cazana

This chart is interesting as it highlights that the most popular fuel type in this age bracket during this period has been the Hybrid cars suggesting that the retail consumer is beginning to truly understand the value of this power type. Given that hybrid technology in this price bracket, is not hugely advanced and the volume of cars available will be quite low, any significant levels of interest will create profit opportunities for the retailers. However, sourcing Hybrid cars in this price range will also be quite difficult.

Conversely, the retail pricing for electric cars has dropped. There are potentially two reasons for this, firstly that there is no confidence in a BEV at this price and age, probably due to the fact that technology has advanced significantly since these cars were first registered and the driving range will be low. Secondly, due to what will be an increased volume of BEVs in the market, consumer demand is not there to maintain the residual value.

The final chart looks at retail price performance from the whole market with a more granular lens.

Up to £10k Retail Price Movements by % Biggest Increases by Fuel Type and Market Sector

Data powered by Cazana

This chart identifies the fuel type and market sector that has shown the greatest increase in retail price since the showrooms reopened on June 1st whilst also showing the percentage of retail adverts in the total market. It is worth noting that cars priced up to £10k represent 34.5% of the total retail adverts in the market, coming second only to the £10 to £20k price range that accounts for 42.9% of all adverts.

The largest improvement has come in the E or Executive car sector and interestingly those with diesel hybrid propulsion. Whilst this propulsion type and market sector account for just 0.1% of all retail adverts this highlights the importance of understanding where demand and hence margin opportunities lie. Looking at more mainstream cars and the increase of 1.5% in retail pricing for the C or Lower Medium cars is perhaps more expected and with a retail market presence of 3.6% overall this is quite an important increase to acknowledge. However, this chart also highlights that the M or MPV sector has 3 spots in the top 10, a trend identified by Cazana a couple of weeks ago, and appears to suggest greater retail consumer demand and perhaps a shortage of stock for a vehicle type once loved by families and now perhaps embraced by people looking to transport people in more safety either for commuting or business logistics purposes. 

In conclusion, Cazana whole market data both qualifies and quantifies the anecdotal suggestion that there is strong demand within the sub £10k price range, although the movements are less volatile than some pundits might have you believe. Given that working with retail driven realtime data is a more reliable and consistent measure of market activity, those that see snapshots of wholesale data are to be forgiven for flagging the occasional dramatic move in price on individual cars. This sector of the market remains in good shape and considering the social distancing requirements and the reluctance of the general public to travel in the same way as they did pre COVID-19 this sector is set to be active for some time to come. Using realtime data to identify the market trends and nuances, will help retailers maximise both stock turn and margin.

 

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

The automotive industry had been holding its breath in some ways during the last week in anticipation of the chancellor’s announcement of further support for the economy. There were also some anecdotal reports that the retail consumer was also mildly reticent when it came to commitment citing interest in whether Rishi Sunak would reduce VAT across all sectors of the economy thus saving them extra pounds in the deal.

As it transpired the £30 billion support package was of less help to the retail car buyer than it was to the retailers and logistics providers. The measures of support may help in terms of bringing furloughed staff back into the business, and there is also support for the young with money for job schemes which can also be seen as good news. However, the focus was more on the hospitality and entertainment industry in a bid to improve the “feel good” factor and kick start areas of the economy that have been dormant from the start of lockdown.

The new and used car market continued to enjoy the support of retail consumers although it is fair to say that there is more demand for used cars than there is for new cars. This is due to reduced levels of new car availability from certain OEMs and on the subject of supply, it is also still clear that the wholesale logistics chain still has a way to go to get back to speed from an operational perspective. Whilst on the topic of operations it is interesting to note that the online sales piece is continuing to bring a high volume of sales highlighting that there is both some reluctance for buyers to return to the showroom but also a new level of trust in buying cars seamlessly online. For those retailers that cannot fulfil “mouse to house” operations, this is a clear indication that this is a must-have option for buyers rather than a nice to have.

Looking at retail price performance and analysing weekly un-edited data from the whole market, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole Market Retail Price change as a % by Price Range W/c - 29/06 against W/c - 06/07

Data powered by Cazana

The previous chart is a comparison between data from the previous week and shows retail price movements by price range. It also compares the market with the same period last year to ascertain whether there are any material differences year on year. This week’s movements show a pretty steady picture once again although when using this lens on the market it shows that there are some downward moves in retail pricing on most price ranges over £20k which is a change from the previous week. That said the moves are fairly light but may reflect the reticence of the retail consumer mentioned earlier.

Of specific interest is the increase in pricing in the sub £20k price ranges most notably sub £10k cars. Also, of note this week is the rise in the £10k to £20k price range which has been under pressure of late with Ex PCP cars identified as the cause. It will be important to watch this tranche of the market going forward as there will be both opportunity and threat here.

Looking at the data from a different angle the chart below shows the retail price change week on week by market sector.

Whole Market Price Change as a % by Market Sector Profile W/c 29/06 against W/c 06/07

Data powered by Cazana

This chart whilst complex is important because of the depth of the data that it represents, and it looks at three key market measures from the perspective of activity by age profile. This helps to put data in the first graph into context. The blue bar looks at pricing movements by way of a percentage move week on week. The orange bar shows the proportion of the retail advertising market that each age profile commands and finally the grey line highlights the volume movement change as a percentage of retail adverts by age profile week on week.

This reveals that all but the Ex PCP and Ex Fleet Old profiles show an increase in pricing, albeit modest, in all but the case of the Pre Reg cars. With a 3.27% increase in pricing, this Pre-Reg market is perhaps reflecting the ability to command higher prices where the new car market is short of stock. Deeper analysis by OEM provides fascinating further context. This chart also shows that the Pre Reg profile is one of 4 age profiles to see a drop in the volume of retail adverts shown in the market which supports the ability to increase retail pricing to match retail consumer demand.

The chart also highlights that from the Part Exchange sector onwards there are further retail price increases and also a decline in the retail advert representation in the market. This further supports the retail price increases evident in the first chart by price range. The shortage of stock and retail consumer demand for older cheaper cars is still an important part of today’s “new normal”.

With an overall market increase in Retail Pricing of 0.22% week on week it is clear that certainly, for the time being, the balance of the retail consumer demand and supply of wholesale vehicles are working well. Retailer frustrations getting hold of cars bought from auctions is growing but there is little anyone can do to resolve this. The shortage of stock is causing volatility in the wholesale market and this has resulted in margin erosion as buyer struggle to find cars for the pitches. There is little doubt that the next few weeks and months will continue to be both volatile and risky at times. All things considered, the use of retail driven realtime insight is imperative to ensure retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends in order to facilitate enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

With the first month of the “new normal” now safely concluded, the automotive industry is now beginning to understand the impact of the COVID lockdown period. Whilst retail consumer activity in the used car market has blossomed the new car market has struggled to return to a sense of normality being one of the slowest European markets post lockdown. At 34.9% down on June 2019, the difference is clear and slightly worrying.

What has become evident is the need to work with realtime data to be able to understand what is happening in the retail market as quickly as possible. The last week has further emphasised the fact that these days the market can move very fast and understanding the opportunities is essential to maximise the return on the stock on the forecourt. The logistics supply chain remained stretched in the last week and even with more cars on sale in the wholesale market, the retailers have been struggling to get hold of the stock that they bought at auction. With some operational staff still furloughed, moving cars around at auction and prep centres has been challenging to say the least.

With stock availability as it is and consumer demand bringing more consumers to the websites and pitches, last week saw much comment on margin erosion. Retailers have been maintaining their prices and in some cases increasing them in the last week but the retail buyer is a wily character, and as such pricing has not risen enough to maintain margins. The positive is that the average days to sale metric that soared during lockdown dropped further in the last week.

Focussing on retail price performance and looking at weekly data, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Price-Range-Wc-2206-against-Wc-2906

Data powered by Cazana

The previous chart shows how retail prices have shifted week on week as a percentage, and for comparison, the 2020 data has been compared against the same period last year. This data is interesting because it shows that in the last 7 days that pricing has reduced for cars in all price ranges up to £30k. The nominal movement for sub £10k cars is of minimal concern as this price range is very active at present and replacement stock is short. The -0.64% shift for the £10k to £20k bracket is more of a concern. This suggests that either consumer demand has dropped, or stock volume has increased necessitating more competitive pricing. However, it is also possible that a shift in the type of vehicle available has dropped the average price.

On a more positive note, the chart also highlights that pricing for cars over £30k has increased and this is interesting. This could mean that a reduction in the availability of stock compared with good retail demand has facilitated an uplift. Looking at other factors in the data this would appear to be the reason. It is also of note to see that the higher the price the bigger the increase.

Looking at the data from a different angle the chart below shows the retail price change week on week by market sector.

Whole-Market-Price-Change-as-a-by-Market-Sector-Profile-Wc-2206-against-Wc-2906

Data powered by Cazana

This chart is full of insight and reflects three key performance indicators. The blue bars show the retail price change as a % by market profile when comparing week on week. This is complemented by the orange bar that shows the total market share of retail adverts by market profile. Finally, the grey line shows the change in retail advert market share week on week as a %.

From this chart, it is evident that the market share week on week is broadly similar, with the exception of the Part Exchange profile which has increased. This is perhaps not a surprise given the recent market success and it reflects a greater number of this type of product in the market. This is coupled with a drop of 0.23% in retail pricing and this perhaps reflects the volume of cars in the market compared to consumer demand during the course of the week.

The other marked move has come in the Pre Reg profile where the volume of retail adverts in the whole market has dropped by 0.8%. The corresponding price lift of 0.5% perhaps indicating a little more strength in the market although sales in the Pre Reg sector could have been affected by the low volume of new cars that are currently available from some OEMs.

The final large marker in the chart relates to the retail price drop of 2.83% in the 2-year-old Ex PCP profile. The volume of retail adverts in the market has barely shifted and therefore a price reduction in this sector is worthy of concern and more data analysis. On first investigation, it is apparent that this sector has been affected by a drop of 6.2% in retail prices week on week for B sector electric vehicles. Before panic ensues, greater analysis is required to identify exactly what has happened. This scenario demonstrates the value of realtime data and the importance of granular analysis to identify both opportunity and risk and is a key advantage of using Cazana insight.

In conclusion, the car market remains in good health with consistent retail consumer demand driving an overall market price increase of 0.27%. The lack of product in the wholesale market has revealed some interesting pricing trends and as such both opportunity and risk for the retailers. The vehicle supply chain continues to battle its way back to efficiency and this is likely to cause ongoing logistics challenges for some weeks to come. All things considered, the use of retail driven realtime insight is imperative to ensure retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends in order to facilitate an enhanced financial return.

Cazana Monthly Pricing Insight

June saw the end of one of the most difficult periods in automotive history in the UK following the worldwide economic challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Retailers were given the go ahead by the government to open their showrooms for business after an unprecedented period of enforced closure. On June 1st the retail consumer was allowed back to the pitches to buy cars and despite the extensive social distancing measure in place, the return to a “new normal” was swift. New processes and procedures designed to keep staff and customers safe have been accepted by the consumers and buying a new or used car is now more structured and in many cases a quicker process. Timed appointments and unaccompanied test drives appear to have accelerated the decision-making process and taken away the often-lengthy objection handling and subsequent closing process.

The new car market also returned but not in the way that many would have liked or indeed expected. With new car registrations down 34.9% on the same period last year, the question is was this because of a lack of new car product or because the consumer was more interested in a used car. Of note is the continued increase in BEV registrations with a market penetration of 6.1% for the month. Of equal interest is the drop in diesel car registrations to just 15.8% of the whole market.

The positive news is that from a used car pricing perspective, retailers did not, bar the odd exception, drop their retail pricing to try and drive sales. The reality is there has not been a need to do so and the difficulty in replacing sold units has meant that price reductions may have brought a short term boost to cash flow but resulted in a lack of cars to sell and was therefore, a short sighted and counter-productive strategy.

Looking in more detail at retail pricing and the chart below compares retail pricing as a percentage of cost new by age and mileage profile against two previous years.

Full-Retail-Market-Pricing-Performance-as-a-of-Original-Cost-New-Compared-Against-2-Previous-Years

Data powered by Cazana

This chart gives a very high-level indication as to the used car pricing position during June and it is immediately clear that pricing has increased across all age and mileage profiles although the pricing position is not as strong for three-year-old cars as it was in 2018. It is also interesting to note the strength of the Quick Turn age and mileage profile for June 2020 which is stronger than it has been for some time. This reflects the lower volumes of pre-reg cars in the market although it is worth noting that a higher % of original cost new can also indicate that the balance of premium brand product to volume OEM sourced cars may have shifted. This may also be the reason that the new car registration figure for June was so low.

Looking in a little more detail and the chart below highlights pricing movements across the month by Price Range.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Movement-During-June-2020-Compared-Against-2019

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at the retail pricing movements across the whole market during June and not just individual advertising platform data, and as such is a more comprehensive view of the UK market retail pricing activity. Focusing at a high level reviewing all fuel types, the data shows that for three price ranges there has been an increase in retail pricing albeit reasonably modest. However, it is also important to note some minimal downward moves between £10k and £50k. The overall monthly retail price summary is an increase of 0.03% and whilst small this reflects the strength of consumer demand during the month. Looking at the detail in the data shows where the big gains and losses have taken place and this is essential to ensure maximisation of market nuances daily. Realtime retail driven insight is the only way to stay truly in touch with the market.

As a comparison, this chart also looks at the pricing movements during June 2019 and this qualifies the strength in the market in 2020 despite the impact of COVID-19. Last year saw a whole market reduction in retail pricing across all fuel types of 6.38%.

Part of the reason for the strength in pricing has been the lack of available replacement stock. As predicted by Cazana in early May the vehicle supply chain has proven to be in a somewhat weakened state and from June 1st as retail sale volumes climbed, the physical auction environment remained dormant until the middle of the month. With only online auctions taking place it was difficult to source used car stock. What exacerbated the situation was the fact that many of the logistics staff were, and in some cases still are, on furlough meaning the collection and delivery of cars was very slow to pick up. Even after opening, auction houses struggled to move cars on site and prep centres faced similar difficulties with the complications of multi car movements and the requirements for social distancing on site. This position looks set to cause supply difficulty for some weeks to come with delivery facilitation currently at full stretch frustrating those dealers that have bought stock but can’t get their hands on it.

The next chart looks at how the volume of retail advertised cars changed during the course of June.

Volume-of-Removed-Retail-Adverts-from-the-Whole-Market-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-by-Week-Since-Retailers-Reopened-on-June-1st

Data powered by Cazana

This chart reflects the volume of new retail adverts coming to the market week by week during the month and is shown by the bars and is also split by age profile. The line quantifies the total percentage increase or decreases by age profile over the course of the month. This data indicates the availability of replacement used car stock and can also be used to interpret the retail sales demand for cars by profile.

Therefore, in comparison to the beginning of the month the number of retail adverts for some age profiles increased significantly and this confirms that there was an uplift in the number of cars coming to the market. This is interesting given the widely reported supply chain restrictions although could reflect the immediate boost in wholesale activity once the retail showrooms opened for business which subsequently depleted the supply of wholesale stock. Of note is the drop in adverts for the Older Part Exchange and Older car profiles and this corroborates the reports of increased demand for this age of car and highlights the shortage of replacement stock in the wholesale market. This ties in with the increase in price shown in the second chart for the sub £10k price range.

In conclusion, looking at the whole month data, retail pricing has increased but only marginally. It is wise to remember that the detail shows some significant peaks and troughs on a week by week basis specifically when looking at different fuel types, OEMs and individual models. The retail consumer has largely felt comfortable with the new sales environment but at the same time, the development of “mouse to house” solutions has accelerated as predicted by Cazana in April. This is essential to ensure the industry reaches all customers including those that feel uncomfortable going to the showrooms.

The short to mid term future looks set to remain positive although consideration must be given to what may happen as the autumn approaches and some of the government financial support for consumers and businesses is withdrawn. It is acknowledged that a recession is on the way and that unemployment will rise but the question is how long will the recession last, and what will happen with consumer confidence and disposable income. What is certain is that understanding market trends and nuances will be the key to ensuring that commercial strategy is developed to suit the changing market. The need to be flexible and responsive in operational structure, pricing and stocking has never been more important and using retail driven realtime insight is an excellent way of ensuring funders, retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends to facilitate enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

It is now a month since retailers opened their doors and welcomed customers back to the new world of car retailing and the market continues to remain strong almost across the board. The new way of treating customers face to face has been accepted and procedures are working well with the vast majority of customers feeling comfortable and safe in the new environment.

The biggest issue facing retailers right now is the ability to find replacement stock as predicted some weeks ago by Cazana. The wholesale supply chain is currently barely coping with the demands of the trade with the most difficult problems being around the collection of ends of contract and part exchange vehicles heading for sale. Equally the delivery of those vehicles to the dealers once sold is also proving challenging.

Forecourts at many retailer premises are looking a little empty and this is not necessarily because the buying teams have not bought replacement cars to sell, but because getting their hands on those new cars is very difficult. Social distancing required under current regulations means that moving cars on site at auction and storage facilities once sold and handing them over or delivering them is very time consuming. There is a high level of frustration for dealers large and small right now as they struggle to get cars back to be made ready for sale.

Focussing on retail price performance and looking at weekly data, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole-Market-Data-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Price-Range-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This chart shows that retail pricing has increased across the market although it is important to remember that is a high-level view that includes all fuel types and there are nuances within each price range depending on both market sector and fuel type. However, this is a “good news” position to be in. Of most interest is the 2.78% rise in pricing that can be seen in the £30 to £39k price range. This suggests one of two things, firstly that there has been an increase in consumer demand for cars across this price range and secondly that there could be a shortage of replacement stock to fill spaces created by sold vehicles hence pushing pricing upwards. Either way, this is a positive place for the industry to be in.

The other area of demand appears to be in the sub £20k price range as it is clear when split by £0 to £9,999 and £10,000 to £19,999 both price ranges show an uplift in pricing of 0.77%. This fits with the anecdotal market commentary that supports the increase in demand for cheaper cars perhaps bought as commuter vehicles or upgraded family cars ready to be used for summer travel and vacationing.

Looking at the data from a different angle the chart below shows the retail price change week on week by market sector.Whole-Market-Data-Retail-Price-Change-as-by-Market-Sector-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This chart helps to qualify where the price moves have been realised and it is immediately of note that the MPV sector has recorded the largest enhancement in pricing. At 5.33% up the MPV sector has been a busy place. Wholesale stock is short for this type of car and the consumer demand is strong and where consumers are buying these cars the need for the retailer to replace them is pushing pricing upwards. Once again, the detail is key to understand data properly, and it would seem that demand is primarily for hybrid and diesel variants which by their nature and new car registration volumes are fairly scarce.

The retail price decrease within the A or Supermini sector may come as a bit of a surprise to some but this sector has reasonably good supply given the volumes sold new in recent years. Also, demand at this time of year often moves towards family focussed cars anyway and so with good supply and perhaps softer consumer demand this may be a sector to watch although it may also be an acceptably normal weekly variance.

In order to monitor the health of the market overall it is vital to consider what is happening across all sectors and price ranges, and using fact based realtime insight is the only truly effective way of identifying market nuances and being able to react to them swiftly. It is essential to do this to ensure, in an ideal world, the right stock mix but also to be able to maximise on profit particularly in the current post COVID-19 market where there is a real need to bolster revenue after the lockdown period.

The next chart looks at how the volume of retail advertising has changed week on week. This is an important guide to indicate the volume of cars coming to the market.

Volume-of-New-Retail-Adverts-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This insight shows that week on week the number of new retail adverts appearing in the consumer space on dealer websites has largely speaking continued to increase. The rate of improvement has slowed over previous weeks and this is natural given that there had been a rush by retailers to get cars advertised once deliveries started post lockdown. This was made more difficult as there had been a number of administrative staff on furlough and unable to keep the admin support systems working effectively.

Of particular note in this chart is the weekly increase of 40% in the number of Late and Low-profile cars that have come to the retail market. This is supported by healthy moves in the 20% range for 2 year and 3 old ex PCP stock. There are two profiles with negative figures, although firstly the Pre Reg sector should not be a surprise to anyone at the moment. Generally speaking, Pre-Registration has not taken place as new car stock for most remains short. However, a drop in the number of Old cars being advertised raised an eyebrow, although on immediate reflection this is to be expected given the consumer demand for this type of car and the difficulty experienced by those trade buyers and retailers trying to replace them.

To summarise, the UK used car market remains in a positive state with a breadth of online and physical sales banked by the retailers and a steady stream of enquiries. The result has been further increases in retail pricing driven by consumer demand, wholesale stock shortages and operating costs. Using retail driven realtime insight is an excellent way of ensuring retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends in order to facilitate enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Two weeks after the showrooms opened and the retail consumer appears to be comfortable with the new way of buying a car in a socially distanced environment. Revised processes implemented by the retailers nationwide have inspired confidence and although the sales process is now far more structured and controlled, the consumer appears to be very happy. The new sales operational process appears to be a hit with the retailers too, with widespread feedback that it speeds the customer’s decision-making process and reduces objections, which is good news.

The greatest risk comes with those who want a test drive as even though the cars are thoroughly sanitised under current government guidelines there is no safe way to have a member of the sales team present during the drive. As such, there is always the possibility that the customer may abscond with the car. Some retailers have tried charging for test drives to discourage opportunist thieves, but this appears to alienate serious buyers and is a practice likely to be dropped quite swiftly. On the positive side, “bums on seats” without a salesperson watching the potential purchaser driving is proving to be a great way to sell a car. The important point here is to make sure the insurance company is aware that the car is being driven unaccompanied.

From a pricing perspective, the last week has seen a stabilisation of retail pricing and overall prices have remained the same from a whole market point of view. For the avoidance of doubt, the Cazana data in the following charts is a week on week comparison, not a monthly report. The data is retail driven and comes from the whole market and not individual retail advertising platforms. Cazana uses machine learning and data science to ensure that it is fact-based insight and not manually edited data that is influenced by subjective human decisions and opinion.

The chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by age and mileage profile as a % difference.

Retail-Price-Movements-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-Week-on-Week-by-and-Retail-Market-Penetration

Data powered by Cazana

This chart highlights that 3 market sectors have seen a small decline in pricing in the last week and to further quantify this statement it means that 11% of the total used car market has seen a decline in values but the positive news is that 89% of the market has seen an increase in retail pricing. It is important to recognise why there has been a decline in pricing.

The biggest shift has been a -0.56% move in Ex PCP 36-month-old pricing and also 4 to 6-year-old Ex Fleet profile pricing. This is likely to reflect either a reduction in pricing due to increased volume of these cars in the market necessitating a price adjustment, or a reduction in consumer engagement online. These two age and mileage profiles account for 10% of all retail advertised cars so not a huge part of the market but areas to be watched going forward. The other drop has been for Ex Fleet cars at 36 months old but with higher average mileage, where there has been a minimal price drop of -0.14% although minimal in the greater context given this age and mileage profile accounts for just 1% of all retail advertised cars.

The positive news is the increase in pricing for the Older Part Exchange profile representing cars of between 7 and 10 years old. The increase of 4.47% might suggest that there are fewer cars in the market although further analysis reveals that retail market share actually increased by 0.05% to 7% for the period.

The other positive news is that the Late and Low and Part Exchange profiles, that between them account for 67% of the market, have also shown increases in pricing. Price lifts were minimal at 0.04% and 0.01% but is perhaps a clear indicator of positive retail consumer demand.

Looking at a slightly different metric the chart below looks at the volume of newly advertised in comparison to the previous week for the last two weeks since the showrooms opened for business once again.

Whole-Market-Data-New-Listings-as-a-of-the-Previous-Week-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile

Data powered by Cazana

It is clear that in week 22 there was a significant jump in new retail advertisements and that was always to be expected. It is also encouraging to note that this improvement in new listings continued in week 23 highlighting the fact that not only are the doors open again, but there is new stock coming to the virtual and physical forecourts.

However, it is the next chart that highlights the improvement in the sales position as it records the week on week difference by % in the number of retail adverts that have been withdrawn from dealer websites nationwide and thus reflecting sold vehicle volumes.

Whole-Market-Data-Removed-ListingsSold-Vehicles-as-a-of-the-Previous-Week-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile

Data powered by Cazana

Whilst the first week following the opening of the showrooms showed some significant sales increases as was to be expected, it is very good news to see that these increases have recurred again week on week. The Pre Reg-profile did not replicate the enormous boost in sales post reopening of the showrooms in quite the same way but still shows a healthy increase of 69% week on week. Perhaps the surprise here is the dip in sales of older cars over the previous week, although we have identified in the previous charts that retail pricing has increased and new listings have followed suit so perhaps another area to monitor in the coming days. This could reflect the type and desirability of the replacement stock available in the wholesale market.

There is a myriad of immensely useful data that sits behind this headline information although the messaging is very clear across all the charts. The market is in good health with great consumer demand and prices rising across the majority of the market. However, the concern around replacement stock is increasing and as such pricing may become more sensitive highlighting the need for real-time factual data.