Cazana’s new website to help the war on COVID-19

Introducing KeyworkerGarages.co.uk

The team at Cazana today launched KeyworkerGarages.co.uk  to help all those who are on the front line fighting COVID-19 stay mobile during these unprecedented times. This is a free website that contains vital information on the service centres that are still offering motor support services to key workers.

If you are an NHS worker, police, delivery driver etc. in need of vehicle services (maintenance, repair, tyres etc) all you need do is enter your postcode and the website will show you the nearest open service centre including opening hours and contact details to get your vehicle booked in as soon as possible.

Despite many business shutdowns, there are still millions of keyworkers, volunteers and support staff who need their vehicles repaired and there are a number of service centres staying open to support this group and willing to help! The team at Cazana have collated the data of open service centres from their partner dealers that remain open. Cazana encourages any centres not listed to submit their details on the site and help us to keep this website up to date to give keyworkers a definitive list of locations that can help.

Tom Wood at Cazana commented:

“This is a challenging time for both the automotive industry and all those who are on the front line fighting this pandemic and we wanted to do something as a team to help both the nation’s essential keyworkers and the dealer service departments remaining open. I’m massively proud of the team here at Cazana who have been collecting data and have built this new site over the past week with the intention of helping people to stay mobile during this crisis”.

For more information, please visit KeyworkerGarages.co.uk. Please help us get the word out about this website so we can ensure that those who need to be on the road during this pandemic keep mobile.

Cazana’s Rustmap – rusty cars and where to find them

Over the last 6 months, there has been an array of bad weather conditions including one hurricane (Ophelia) and 21 storms in the UK including the more notable ones such as Storm Brian, Storm Georgina and Storm Aileen. All of this rainfall and harsh weather takes an unfortunate toll on our vehicles.

With this in mind, we have searched the extensive Cazana database and highlighted the counties in the UK that have the highest proportion of rusty cars, and identified which are the most rust prone. This was identified by looking at the volume of cars that have rust and corrosion warnings noted on MOT data.

It will come as no surprise that 5 of the rustiest counties for car owners in the UK are situated in Scotland where the weather conditions can often be harsher.

Top 10 rustiest counties in the UK for car owners

Here you have it, the worst offending counties for rusty cars.

Another unsurprising fact is that the top 3 counties with the highest proportion of rusty cars are close to the sea. While living close to the ocean may look stunning and have so many wonderful perks, unfortunately, it can be a tougher environment for cars. Certain environmental factors such as salt and fog near the coast can cause rust on a vehicle and accelerate vehicle corrosion.

  1. West Dunbartonshire, Scotland
  2. Fife, Scotland
  3. Northumberland, North East England
  4. Roxburghshire, Scotland
  5. Banffshire, Scotland
  6. Midlothian, Scotland
  7. Herefordshire, West Midlands
  8. Durham, Central England
  9. Lincolnshire, Central England
  10. Yorkshire, Northern England

Other counties that are high on the list include Lanarkshire, West Lothian, Angus and Flintshire. There is a clear pattern of either being close to the sea and somewhere where the weather conditions are tougher.

The counties with the lowest proportion of rusty cars

So in contrast to the list above, the counties with the lowest volume of rusty cars are mostly in the south and Wales.

  1. Antrim, Northern Ireland
  2. Middlesex, South East England
  3. Hampshire, South England
  4. Oxfordshire, South East England
  5. Surrey, South East England
  6. Denbighshire, North East Wales
  7. Kent, South East England
  8. Caernarfonshire, Wales

The top 10 rustiest cars in the UK

It’s surprising to see the nations favourite Ford Fiesta on here and not only that but it is top of the list. With so many on our roads and often older it is possible that they are also less well cared for. Land Rover and Jeep, however, are not as surprising to see on this list as they are often used heavily in off-road conditions where water and dirt are commonplace.

  1. Ford Fiesta
  2. Vauxhall Corsa
  3. Land Rover Range Rover Sport
  4. Ford StreetKa
  5. Toyota Rav-4
  6. Jeep Wrangler
  7. Volkswagen Polo Hatch
  8. MINI Hatchback
  9.  Ford Ka
  10. Fiat Grande Punto

What are the main causes of rust in vehicles?

rusty car in the sea

Rust is the reddish-brown/yellow colour that coats iron or steel when exposed to air and moisture. Our vehicles can be a big investment and financial commitment and to ensure we protect them we need to first understand what the main causes of rust are.

  • Location  

As fun as living near the coast is, as we mentioned above, it can take a toll on your car. Both the salt and moisture (water) in the air can cause vehicles to rust. Therefore it is no surprise that 6 out of the top 10 rustiest counties in this list are close to the sea.

  • Salt

Most road users in colder places will use salt to get rid of ice and snow from their vehicles and it is also used extensively to keep the roads clear. However, lengthy exposure to salt can be harmful to vehicles and make them more susceptible to corrosion as it gets caught in the nooks and crannies of the car.

  • Weather conditions

As we already mentioned water and moisture is a big cause of rust on and in cars. Rain, snow and fog are big factors in why our cars rust and corrode over time.

  • Neglect

Like anything in life if we ignore a bad situation it will eventually get worse. Not checking your car regularly and not keeping up with maintenance and more important cleanliness will cause minor instances of rust to flourish and turn into more serious issues.

Top 6 ways to prevent rust in vehicles

prevent rust in vehicles

  1. Regular maintenance. This may sound obvious but keep up with regular repairs as it can make all the difference when something is caught early.
  2. Inspect your car regularly and act on what you find covering body scratches and dings as quickly as possible
  3. Wash your car regularly. Make sure wheel arches and the underbody are regularly cleaned.
  4. Keep your car in a sheltered area. If you are lucky enough to have a garage or sheltered area to park make sure you use it to help protect your car from harsh weather conditions. If you don’t have a sheltered place to park then consider getting a car cover.
  5. Wax. Get your vehicle waxed twice a year (especially if you live near the seaside) and consider having a body protection treatment added.  
  6. Keep the inside of your car clean too. Don’t just wash the outside of the car, keep the interiors clean as well especially during Winter when there is more salt on the roads.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

With the first month of the “new normal” now safely concluded, the automotive industry is now beginning to understand the impact of the COVID lockdown period. Whilst retail consumer activity in the used car market has blossomed the new car market has struggled to return to a sense of normality being one of the slowest European markets post lockdown. At 34.9% down on June 2019, the difference is clear and slightly worrying.

What has become evident is the need to work with realtime data to be able to understand what is happening in the retail market as quickly as possible. The last week has further emphasised the fact that these days the market can move very fast and understanding the opportunities is essential to maximise the return on the stock on the forecourt. The logistics supply chain remained stretched in the last week and even with more cars on sale in the wholesale market, the retailers have been struggling to get hold of the stock that they bought at auction. With some operational staff still furloughed, moving cars around at auction and prep centres has been challenging to say the least.

With stock availability as it is and consumer demand bringing more consumers to the websites and pitches, last week saw much comment on margin erosion. Retailers have been maintaining their prices and in some cases increasing them in the last week but the retail buyer is a wily character, and as such pricing has not risen enough to maintain margins. The positive is that the average days to sale metric that soared during lockdown dropped further in the last week.

Focussing on retail price performance and looking at weekly data, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Price-Range-Wc-2206-against-Wc-2906

Data powered by Cazana

The previous chart shows how retail prices have shifted week on week as a percentage, and for comparison, the 2020 data has been compared against the same period last year. This data is interesting because it shows that in the last 7 days that pricing has reduced for cars in all price ranges up to £30k. The nominal movement for sub £10k cars is of minimal concern as this price range is very active at present and replacement stock is short. The -0.64% shift for the £10k to £20k bracket is more of a concern. This suggests that either consumer demand has dropped, or stock volume has increased necessitating more competitive pricing. However, it is also possible that a shift in the type of vehicle available has dropped the average price.

On a more positive note, the chart also highlights that pricing for cars over £30k has increased and this is interesting. This could mean that a reduction in the availability of stock compared with good retail demand has facilitated an uplift. Looking at other factors in the data this would appear to be the reason. It is also of note to see that the higher the price the bigger the increase.

Looking at the data from a different angle the chart below shows the retail price change week on week by market sector.

Whole-Market-Price-Change-as-a-by-Market-Sector-Profile-Wc-2206-against-Wc-2906

Data powered by Cazana

This chart is full of insight and reflects three key performance indicators. The blue bars show the retail price change as a % by market profile when comparing week on week. This is complemented by the orange bar that shows the total market share of retail adverts by market profile. Finally, the grey line shows the change in retail advert market share week on week as a %.

From this chart, it is evident that the market share week on week is broadly similar, with the exception of the Part Exchange profile which has increased. This is perhaps not a surprise given the recent market success and it reflects a greater number of this type of product in the market. This is coupled with a drop of 0.23% in retail pricing and this perhaps reflects the volume of cars in the market compared to consumer demand during the course of the week.

The other marked move has come in the Pre Reg profile where the volume of retail adverts in the whole market has dropped by 0.8%. The corresponding price lift of 0.5% perhaps indicating a little more strength in the market although sales in the Pre Reg sector could have been affected by the low volume of new cars that are currently available from some OEMs.

The final large marker in the chart relates to the retail price drop of 2.83% in the 2-year-old Ex PCP profile. The volume of retail adverts in the market has barely shifted and therefore a price reduction in this sector is worthy of concern and more data analysis. On first investigation, it is apparent that this sector has been affected by a drop of 6.2% in retail prices week on week for B sector electric vehicles. Before panic ensues, greater analysis is required to identify exactly what has happened. This scenario demonstrates the value of realtime data and the importance of granular analysis to identify both opportunity and risk and is a key advantage of using Cazana insight.

In conclusion, the car market remains in good health with consistent retail consumer demand driving an overall market price increase of 0.27%. The lack of product in the wholesale market has revealed some interesting pricing trends and as such both opportunity and risk for the retailers. The vehicle supply chain continues to battle its way back to efficiency and this is likely to cause ongoing logistics challenges for some weeks to come. All things considered, the use of retail driven realtime insight is imperative to ensure retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends in order to facilitate an enhanced financial return.

Cazana Monthly Pricing Insight

June saw the end of one of the most difficult periods in automotive history in the UK following the worldwide economic challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Retailers were given the go ahead by the government to open their showrooms for business after an unprecedented period of enforced closure. On June 1st the retail consumer was allowed back to the pitches to buy cars and despite the extensive social distancing measure in place, the return to a “new normal” was swift. New processes and procedures designed to keep staff and customers safe have been accepted by the consumers and buying a new or used car is now more structured and in many cases a quicker process. Timed appointments and unaccompanied test drives appear to have accelerated the decision-making process and taken away the often-lengthy objection handling and subsequent closing process.

The new car market also returned but not in the way that many would have liked or indeed expected. With new car registrations down 34.9% on the same period last year, the question is was this because of a lack of new car product or because the consumer was more interested in a used car. Of note is the continued increase in BEV registrations with a market penetration of 6.1% for the month. Of equal interest is the drop in diesel car registrations to just 15.8% of the whole market.

The positive news is that from a used car pricing perspective, retailers did not, bar the odd exception, drop their retail pricing to try and drive sales. The reality is there has not been a need to do so and the difficulty in replacing sold units has meant that price reductions may have brought a short term boost to cash flow but resulted in a lack of cars to sell and was therefore, a short sighted and counter-productive strategy.

Looking in more detail at retail pricing and the chart below compares retail pricing as a percentage of cost new by age and mileage profile against two previous years.

Full-Retail-Market-Pricing-Performance-as-a-of-Original-Cost-New-Compared-Against-2-Previous-Years

Data powered by Cazana

This chart gives a very high-level indication as to the used car pricing position during June and it is immediately clear that pricing has increased across all age and mileage profiles although the pricing position is not as strong for three-year-old cars as it was in 2018. It is also interesting to note the strength of the Quick Turn age and mileage profile for June 2020 which is stronger than it has been for some time. This reflects the lower volumes of pre-reg cars in the market although it is worth noting that a higher % of original cost new can also indicate that the balance of premium brand product to volume OEM sourced cars may have shifted. This may also be the reason that the new car registration figure for June was so low.

Looking in a little more detail and the chart below highlights pricing movements across the month by Price Range.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Movement-During-June-2020-Compared-Against-2019

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at the retail pricing movements across the whole market during June and not just individual advertising platform data, and as such is a more comprehensive view of the UK market retail pricing activity. Focusing at a high level reviewing all fuel types, the data shows that for three price ranges there has been an increase in retail pricing albeit reasonably modest. However, it is also important to note some minimal downward moves between £10k and £50k. The overall monthly retail price summary is an increase of 0.03% and whilst small this reflects the strength of consumer demand during the month. Looking at the detail in the data shows where the big gains and losses have taken place and this is essential to ensure maximisation of market nuances daily. Realtime retail driven insight is the only way to stay truly in touch with the market.

As a comparison, this chart also looks at the pricing movements during June 2019 and this qualifies the strength in the market in 2020 despite the impact of COVID-19. Last year saw a whole market reduction in retail pricing across all fuel types of 6.38%.

Part of the reason for the strength in pricing has been the lack of available replacement stock. As predicted by Cazana in early May the vehicle supply chain has proven to be in a somewhat weakened state and from June 1st as retail sale volumes climbed, the physical auction environment remained dormant until the middle of the month. With only online auctions taking place it was difficult to source used car stock. What exacerbated the situation was the fact that many of the logistics staff were, and in some cases still are, on furlough meaning the collection and delivery of cars was very slow to pick up. Even after opening, auction houses struggled to move cars on site and prep centres faced similar difficulties with the complications of multi car movements and the requirements for social distancing on site. This position looks set to cause supply difficulty for some weeks to come with delivery facilitation currently at full stretch frustrating those dealers that have bought stock but can’t get their hands on it.

The next chart looks at how the volume of retail advertised cars changed during the course of June.

Volume-of-Removed-Retail-Adverts-from-the-Whole-Market-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-by-Week-Since-Retailers-Reopened-on-June-1st

Data powered by Cazana

This chart reflects the volume of new retail adverts coming to the market week by week during the month and is shown by the bars and is also split by age profile. The line quantifies the total percentage increase or decreases by age profile over the course of the month. This data indicates the availability of replacement used car stock and can also be used to interpret the retail sales demand for cars by profile.

Therefore, in comparison to the beginning of the month the number of retail adverts for some age profiles increased significantly and this confirms that there was an uplift in the number of cars coming to the market. This is interesting given the widely reported supply chain restrictions although could reflect the immediate boost in wholesale activity once the retail showrooms opened for business which subsequently depleted the supply of wholesale stock. Of note is the drop in adverts for the Older Part Exchange and Older car profiles and this corroborates the reports of increased demand for this age of car and highlights the shortage of replacement stock in the wholesale market. This ties in with the increase in price shown in the second chart for the sub £10k price range.

In conclusion, looking at the whole month data, retail pricing has increased but only marginally. It is wise to remember that the detail shows some significant peaks and troughs on a week by week basis specifically when looking at different fuel types, OEMs and individual models. The retail consumer has largely felt comfortable with the new sales environment but at the same time, the development of “mouse to house” solutions has accelerated as predicted by Cazana in April. This is essential to ensure the industry reaches all customers including those that feel uncomfortable going to the showrooms.

The short to mid term future looks set to remain positive although consideration must be given to what may happen as the autumn approaches and some of the government financial support for consumers and businesses is withdrawn. It is acknowledged that a recession is on the way and that unemployment will rise but the question is how long will the recession last, and what will happen with consumer confidence and disposable income. What is certain is that understanding market trends and nuances will be the key to ensuring that commercial strategy is developed to suit the changing market. The need to be flexible and responsive in operational structure, pricing and stocking has never been more important and using retail driven realtime insight is an excellent way of ensuring funders, retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends to facilitate enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

It is now a month since retailers opened their doors and welcomed customers back to the new world of car retailing and the market continues to remain strong almost across the board. The new way of treating customers face to face has been accepted and procedures are working well with the vast majority of customers feeling comfortable and safe in the new environment.

The biggest issue facing retailers right now is the ability to find replacement stock as predicted some weeks ago by Cazana. The wholesale supply chain is currently barely coping with the demands of the trade with the most difficult problems being around the collection of ends of contract and part exchange vehicles heading for sale. Equally the delivery of those vehicles to the dealers once sold is also proving challenging.

Forecourts at many retailer premises are looking a little empty and this is not necessarily because the buying teams have not bought replacement cars to sell, but because getting their hands on those new cars is very difficult. Social distancing required under current regulations means that moving cars on site at auction and storage facilities once sold and handing them over or delivering them is very time consuming. There is a high level of frustration for dealers large and small right now as they struggle to get cars back to be made ready for sale.

Focussing on retail price performance and looking at weekly data, the chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by Price Range as a week on week comparison.

Whole-Market-Data-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Price-Range-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This chart shows that retail pricing has increased across the market although it is important to remember that is a high-level view that includes all fuel types and there are nuances within each price range depending on both market sector and fuel type. However, this is a “good news” position to be in. Of most interest is the 2.78% rise in pricing that can be seen in the £30 to £39k price range. This suggests one of two things, firstly that there has been an increase in consumer demand for cars across this price range and secondly that there could be a shortage of replacement stock to fill spaces created by sold vehicles hence pushing pricing upwards. Either way, this is a positive place for the industry to be in.

The other area of demand appears to be in the sub £20k price range as it is clear when split by £0 to £9,999 and £10,000 to £19,999 both price ranges show an uplift in pricing of 0.77%. This fits with the anecdotal market commentary that supports the increase in demand for cheaper cars perhaps bought as commuter vehicles or upgraded family cars ready to be used for summer travel and vacationing.

Looking at the data from a different angle the chart below shows the retail price change week on week by market sector.Whole-Market-Data-Retail-Price-Change-as-by-Market-Sector-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This chart helps to qualify where the price moves have been realised and it is immediately of note that the MPV sector has recorded the largest enhancement in pricing. At 5.33% up the MPV sector has been a busy place. Wholesale stock is short for this type of car and the consumer demand is strong and where consumers are buying these cars the need for the retailer to replace them is pushing pricing upwards. Once again, the detail is key to understand data properly, and it would seem that demand is primarily for hybrid and diesel variants which by their nature and new car registration volumes are fairly scarce.

The retail price decrease within the A or Supermini sector may come as a bit of a surprise to some but this sector has reasonably good supply given the volumes sold new in recent years. Also, demand at this time of year often moves towards family focussed cars anyway and so with good supply and perhaps softer consumer demand this may be a sector to watch although it may also be an acceptably normal weekly variance.

In order to monitor the health of the market overall it is vital to consider what is happening across all sectors and price ranges, and using fact based realtime insight is the only truly effective way of identifying market nuances and being able to react to them swiftly. It is essential to do this to ensure, in an ideal world, the right stock mix but also to be able to maximise on profit particularly in the current post COVID-19 market where there is a real need to bolster revenue after the lockdown period.

The next chart looks at how the volume of retail advertising has changed week on week. This is an important guide to indicate the volume of cars coming to the market.

Volume-of-New-Retail-Adverts-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-Wc-1506-against-Wc-2206

Data powered by Cazana

This insight shows that week on week the number of new retail adverts appearing in the consumer space on dealer websites has largely speaking continued to increase. The rate of improvement has slowed over previous weeks and this is natural given that there had been a rush by retailers to get cars advertised once deliveries started post lockdown. This was made more difficult as there had been a number of administrative staff on furlough and unable to keep the admin support systems working effectively.

Of particular note in this chart is the weekly increase of 40% in the number of Late and Low-profile cars that have come to the retail market. This is supported by healthy moves in the 20% range for 2 year and 3 old ex PCP stock. There are two profiles with negative figures, although firstly the Pre Reg sector should not be a surprise to anyone at the moment. Generally speaking, Pre-Registration has not taken place as new car stock for most remains short. However, a drop in the number of Old cars being advertised raised an eyebrow, although on immediate reflection this is to be expected given the consumer demand for this type of car and the difficulty experienced by those trade buyers and retailers trying to replace them.

To summarise, the UK used car market remains in a positive state with a breadth of online and physical sales banked by the retailers and a steady stream of enquiries. The result has been further increases in retail pricing driven by consumer demand, wholesale stock shortages and operating costs. Using retail driven realtime insight is an excellent way of ensuring retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends in order to facilitate enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Two weeks after the showrooms opened and the retail consumer appears to be comfortable with the new way of buying a car in a socially distanced environment. Revised processes implemented by the retailers nationwide have inspired confidence and although the sales process is now far more structured and controlled, the consumer appears to be very happy. The new sales operational process appears to be a hit with the retailers too, with widespread feedback that it speeds the customer’s decision-making process and reduces objections, which is good news.

The greatest risk comes with those who want a test drive as even though the cars are thoroughly sanitised under current government guidelines there is no safe way to have a member of the sales team present during the drive. As such, there is always the possibility that the customer may abscond with the car. Some retailers have tried charging for test drives to discourage opportunist thieves, but this appears to alienate serious buyers and is a practice likely to be dropped quite swiftly. On the positive side, “bums on seats” without a salesperson watching the potential purchaser driving is proving to be a great way to sell a car. The important point here is to make sure the insurance company is aware that the car is being driven unaccompanied.

From a pricing perspective, the last week has seen a stabilisation of retail pricing and overall prices have remained the same from a whole market point of view. For the avoidance of doubt, the Cazana data in the following charts is a week on week comparison, not a monthly report. The data is retail driven and comes from the whole market and not individual retail advertising platforms. Cazana uses machine learning and data science to ensure that it is fact-based insight and not manually edited data that is influenced by subjective human decisions and opinion.

The chart below shows how retail pricing has moved by age and mileage profile as a % difference.

Retail-Price-Movements-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-Week-on-Week-by-and-Retail-Market-Penetration

Data powered by Cazana

This chart highlights that 3 market sectors have seen a small decline in pricing in the last week and to further quantify this statement it means that 11% of the total used car market has seen a decline in values but the positive news is that 89% of the market has seen an increase in retail pricing. It is important to recognise why there has been a decline in pricing.

The biggest shift has been a -0.56% move in Ex PCP 36-month-old pricing and also 4 to 6-year-old Ex Fleet profile pricing. This is likely to reflect either a reduction in pricing due to increased volume of these cars in the market necessitating a price adjustment, or a reduction in consumer engagement online. These two age and mileage profiles account for 10% of all retail advertised cars so not a huge part of the market but areas to be watched going forward. The other drop has been for Ex Fleet cars at 36 months old but with higher average mileage, where there has been a minimal price drop of -0.14% although minimal in the greater context given this age and mileage profile accounts for just 1% of all retail advertised cars.

The positive news is the increase in pricing for the Older Part Exchange profile representing cars of between 7 and 10 years old. The increase of 4.47% might suggest that there are fewer cars in the market although further analysis reveals that retail market share actually increased by 0.05% to 7% for the period.

The other positive news is that the Late and Low and Part Exchange profiles, that between them account for 67% of the market, have also shown increases in pricing. Price lifts were minimal at 0.04% and 0.01% but is perhaps a clear indicator of positive retail consumer demand.

Looking at a slightly different metric the chart below looks at the volume of newly advertised in comparison to the previous week for the last two weeks since the showrooms opened for business once again.

Whole-Market-Data-New-Listings-as-a-of-the-Previous-Week-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile

Data powered by Cazana

It is clear that in week 22 there was a significant jump in new retail advertisements and that was always to be expected. It is also encouraging to note that this improvement in new listings continued in week 23 highlighting the fact that not only are the doors open again, but there is new stock coming to the virtual and physical forecourts.

However, it is the next chart that highlights the improvement in the sales position as it records the week on week difference by % in the number of retail adverts that have been withdrawn from dealer websites nationwide and thus reflecting sold vehicle volumes.

Whole-Market-Data-Removed-ListingsSold-Vehicles-as-a-of-the-Previous-Week-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile

Data powered by Cazana

Whilst the first week following the opening of the showrooms showed some significant sales increases as was to be expected, it is very good news to see that these increases have recurred again week on week. The Pre Reg-profile did not replicate the enormous boost in sales post reopening of the showrooms in quite the same way but still shows a healthy increase of 69% week on week. Perhaps the surprise here is the dip in sales of older cars over the previous week, although we have identified in the previous charts that retail pricing has increased and new listings have followed suit so perhaps another area to monitor in the coming days. This could reflect the type and desirability of the replacement stock available in the wholesale market.

There is a myriad of immensely useful data that sits behind this headline information although the messaging is very clear across all the charts. The market is in good health with great consumer demand and prices rising across the majority of the market. However, the concern around replacement stock is increasing and as such pricing may become more sensitive highlighting the need for real-time factual data.

Cazana and Retail Pricing During Lockdown 2020

It is unlikely that the world economy, and therefore the UK automotive industry will ever see another period like the first half of 2020. Events caught the world by surprise, and it was immediately clear that nobody had anticipated a virus like COVID-19 and the speed of impact it would have both socially and economically. The world decline to a period of extended lockdown was swift and brutal and left governments struggling to support businesses and people.

New and used car sales in the UK dramatically reduced almost overnight on March 23rd and the wholesale environment was no longer able to supply used car stock having been temporarily closed down. This position is only now beginning to resolve itself as the government relaxes lockdown measures and the supply chain follows retailers in ensuring social distancing measures and PPE are satisfactory to minimise the risk of the spread of the virus.

As a modern valuation provider, Cazana uses retail sourced asking price data from the whole market and use machine learning techniques to generate accurate vehicle pricing and forecasting that is fact-based and not subject to manual decisions and editing. As such Cazana were able to provide invaluable insight through the whole lockdown period. Despite the press, to the contrary, some retail activity did continue and retail prices changed throughout lockdown from the first phase of online search and deposit taking whilst delivery was not permitted, through the subsequent online sales and delivery period and finally to the reopening of showrooms on June 1st as demonstrated in the chart below.

whole-market-retail-price-movements

Data powered by Cazana

The above chart focuses on the lockdown period which consisted of two phases. In phase 1, during which there were no sales permitted and shaded in light orange, some retail pricing dipped slightly for a couple of weeks before beginning its overall positive course during the whole lockdown period covered in the chart. In week 17 on April 22nd the government confirmed that cars could be bought by the consumer online and delivered to the door, if key safety measures were adhered too.  This phase 2 period through until week 21 is highlighted in green.

It is important to understand that these are high level market moves including all fuel types, and the nuances behind the headline figures reveal the full story. It is also key to acknowledge that unlike some who predicted retail pricing would become a “race to the bottom”, the chart clearly highlights the general positive movement of pricing week on week.

In addition to this free weekly insight, Cazana’s broader support for the industry included checklists for retailers to better handle the situation and the launch of keyworkergarages.co.uk website to help those keeping the country moving to find access to nearby garages open for business during lockdown. In addition, Cazana made a number of tools available to the industry to help manage pricing and stock on a realtime basis to ensure virtual showrooms were in line with physical stock and ready to help consumers keen to find a new or replacement vehicle. Cazana also offered furloughed sales staff a Dealer Accreditation opportunity to become proficient in the retail back pricing methodology which 100s of dealers have now benefited from.

Cazana’s positive message

Throughout the last 12-weeks Cazana has been encouraging the industry to stay strong on pricing and to get ready for the pent-up demand that we’re seeing released now. To be clear the overall pricing trend during the entire lockdown period was positive across all vehicle types apart from a small drop in diesel. Petrol cars saw the biggest gain with an average increase of £1,258 from start of lockdown to end with Petrol Hybrid close behind at £846 and BEV increasing £414. Diesel prices dropped very slightly by £157 on average.

Total-Retail-Price-Market-Movement-During-Lockdown-by-Fuel-Type-Compared-by-£-Movement-and-Change1

Data powered by Cazana

The robust market reflects the consumer demand levels and also the realisation by the retailers that there was no need to drop pricing as not only was there demand but also concern over sourcing replacement stock. With limited online auction activity retail driven data remained the only reliable source of pricing insight.

The ability to interrogate realtime data on a frequent basis (this period has shown that monthly valuation publications are simply not enough to keep up with a fast-moving market) is essential and ensuring analysis of fact and not previously manipulated output is critical to be able to understand the true market and pricing trends as they happen. Granularity is also key and depending on how the data is cut there will always be tranches of the market that will show gains and losses but therein lies the true value of dependable information on which to build strong and successful commercial strategy.

Therefore, retail pricing is in good health and as highlighted from the beginning of lockdown there is currently a positive trend across the market as a whole whether that be factual as demonstrated by the Cazana data, or anecdotal as seen via proactive media such as Car Dealer Live and from the trade associations ranging from the NFDA to the VRA. However, recent press has highlighted a couple of outlets that have dropped retail pricing as they perhaps strive to get cash in the bank although it is likely that this will prove detrimental to their performance in coming weeks as they struggle to replace what they have sold from the limited wholesale market available.

In conclusion, it is both natural and expected to see both positive and negative price moves during this time, but the point is realtime data gives the industry the transparency to identify these. If the market moved in either direction by several percentage points in a week, then there may be cause for alarm but to date that has not been the case and is unlikely to happen in the short term.

In these circumstances a positive and responsible attitude to remarketing, retailing and reporting is appropriate and the use of whole market retail driven insight essential to maximise on the opportunities currently available.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Indications both anecdotal and factual reflect the fact that consumers have returned to the showrooms in significant numbers, although as expected not at the pre-lockdown levels. Confidence in the social distancing and cleanliness of the showrooms has been absolutely key and post COVID retailing procedures have in many ways been welcomed.

Unfortunately, the return to business has not been without difficulty and disappointment for some. The financial pressures of such a long period of closure have resulted in a variety of less positive measures from some of the dealer groups and OEMs. Lower levels of business, improved online sales and a lack of revenue have prompted an operational review and the outcome has been the loss of some jobs, predominantly from the sales teams. Key performers have been retained and brought back from furlough whilst some members of staff still await their fate, which will undoubtedly be dependent on consumer demand in the coming weeks and the possibility of a second wave of the virus resulting in further lockdown measures is lurking in the background and will not be helping Exec teams in their decision making. Similar issues have been faced by the OEM’s, and production facilities are working at varying capacities depending on brand and location

Last weeks pricing insight has been widely anticipated and the results are very interesting. The chart below looks at price changes as a percentage for petrol-powered cars week on week from June 2nd against May 26th.

Whole-Market-Petrol-Retail-Price-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-

Data powered by Cazana

During the previous week, petrol prices increased by a nominal 0.03% perhaps as the market steadied for reopening and last week the movement across all sectors was downwards by -0.92%. This represents a shift of £162 per car on average although this is predominantly influenced by a drop of -3.84% in the luxury car sector.

Whilst most of the remaining sectors experienced minimal adjustments the largest increase was 0.81% for the Executive cars sector which represents £225 per car and suggests increased consumer enquiries and reduced stock availability. It is also worth noting that this chart excludes movements for the S sports sector which has seen a number of newly advertised vehicles creating a significant market shift of -16.65%. This sector represents 3.88% of all advertised cars and for the purposes of accurate data representation, these cars have been excluded from the data for this week’s report due to the nuances of the type of vehicles advertised.

Retail pricing for diesel powered cars has also remained firm, although unlike the previous week the nominal movement has been a downwards shift of -0.20% overall.

Whole-Market-Diesel-Retail-Pricing-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-–-0206-against-Period-–-2605

Data powered by Cazana

Looking at the chart it would seem that the majority of retail price moves have been negative with positives only showing in the Supermini and Sports sectors both of which hold very low volumes of the total retail advertising market. The largest drop came for the E or Executive sector where the average price is now £18,937 after a decline of £121 per car. This perhaps reflects either an increase in the number of cars in the market or a dip in consumer demand.

Of more note is the decline of -0.48% for the C or Medium car sector which represents 7.9% of the total volume of retail adverts. This is a faster turn sector than most and the drop-in price was £57 per car. The larger sector price movements need to be monitored very closely to ensure maximum margin and the lowest possible days to sale.

Pricing for the petrol hybrid fuel type was also positive overall once again and this is an interesting reflection of growing demand for cars in this sector of the market. There is no doubt that pollution levels in the UK and indeed globally have dropped significantly during the respective lockdown periods and this has highlighted further the damage being done to people’s health by fossil fuel powered cars. The positive pricing position is in all likelihood a reflection of an increase in consumer enquiries and this is likely to continue as we head towards the ban on fossil fuel powered cars in 2035 that is currently still in place.

The overall market move for petrol hybrids across all sectors was an uplift of 0.65% which translates to an increase in price of £172 per car where the average used car price across all sectors and ages is £26,743.

Whole-Market-Petrol-Hybrid-Retail-Pricing-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-0206-against-Period-2605

Data powered by Cazana

There are in fact, two sectors that have shown a decline in pricing but in both cases, the move is minimal and could just be regarded as a minor shuffle.

For the second week running the BEV fuel type has also shown an overall increase in retail pricing as detailed in the chart below.

Data powered by Cazana

Unfortunately, the headline increase in retail pricing of 1.59% for this fuel type overall, masks the fact that three of the main sectors actually recorded a decrease in prices. This is a little surprising given the strength in the petrol hybrid pricing in the previous chart and the potential supporting factors already discussed.

The largest increase of 6.3% came in the D or Large car sector and reflects an uplift in pricing of £3074 per car taking the average price to £51,877. It is important to acknowledge that this sector accounts for less than 0.01% of total retail advertised vehicles and if this data that may be considered spurious by some were removed the average price move across the fuel type would actually be an increase of 0.38% which is more reflective of the true position.

New for this week Cazana looks at the data relating to market performance since the reopening of the showroom doors a week ago. The chart below looks at both the volume of newly advertised vehicles and the volume of cars sold, represented by the number of retail adverts that dropped from the data on a week by week basis since the beginning of March.

Whole-Market-New-Listings-and-Sales-Data-as-a-move-Week-on-Week

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows the percentage movement week on week and the impact of lockdown is immediately clear in listing terms as highlighted in week 13. With the retailers closed, the number of newly advertised vehicles dropped by almost 74% with this decline continuing week after week. The first improvement in listing volumes came in week 16 as the initial period of lockdown came to an end. Week 18 saw the impact of the allowance of socially distanced vehicle delivery and collection, and week 22 the immediate effect of the showroom doors reopening to the consumer. It is important to note that the sales data follows a similar pattern

There is a myriad of immensely useful data that sits behind this headline information although the messaging is very clear across all the charts. Perhaps of most interest is the final chart but these all serve to highlight that at the moment, factual insight is so much more valuable than data based on the very limited wholesale data volumes manually interpreted by some data providers.

Used Car Retailing for Today’s Market

On June 1st, UK automotive retailers were able to open their doors for business for the first time since lockdown was announced by the government on March 23rd which came as a huge relief to the industry as a whole. Whilst many staff have been able to return to work there are still some affected by furlough. This position is likely to change over the coming weeks, although it will be entirely dependent on the level of retail sales closed in the showroom and the level of footfall.

The lockdown period highlighted the need to improve online sales operations and for those that were able to move fast and address online sales processing, the rewards helped soften the blow of an effective suspension of sales. Online representation through the virtual showrooms ensured that some businesses were able to generate up to 20% of their previous sale volume despite the closure of their showrooms.

The point is that there were some businesses that had previously deemed the sale of cars online almost unnecessary and as such had no ability to transact and deliver online during lockdown, which proved to be a poor commercial decision. The industry has acknowledged that online retailing is now essential and will be a significant part of the future modern retailing strategy. At this point, nobody knows whether there will be a second COVID-19 spike which may necessitate another period of partial or total seclusion and therefore online capacity is essential. However, it has been established that online retailing and COVID-19 have highlighted the need for less dealerships and sadly less staff in some instances.

For those that work in the retail premises, life will be somewhat different for the foreseeable future as social distancing must be maintained at all times. An enormous amount of work has been involved in risk assessment and solution provision to bring the retail side of the industry to a safe place to work. Screens have been put in place to safeguard the health of both staff and customers and there are clear markings on the floors and walls highlighting the need to stay distant, whilst at the same time allowing business to be conducted. Unaccompanied test drives have been introduced and the cleanliness of all public areas and more importantly vehicles, are now recorded on the outside of each car. Whenever a car is driven or entered by the consumer the valeting team, with all the correct PPE and sanitising equipment, prepare the car for viewing by the next consumer or subsequent handover to the buyer.

The result has seen the return of retail consumers to the forecourts and the inevitable uplift in sales volume. This lockdown period has seen plenty of online consumer activity, vehicle searches have remained at a good level, bringing an expectation of a degree of pent up demand which has begun to be realised this week. For those that have either been working or furloughed, there is now the opportunity to buy a new car. There is now the chance to spend some of the money saved whilst pubs, restaurants, bars, shops and general entertainment venues have been closed.

Qualification of why demand will be good is important and aside of the element of pent up demand, it is worth considering other things that will impact consumer thinking over the coming months. Firstly, research has shown that people are very wary of confined spaces such as on trains and buses. For some, the purchase of a car will take the risk element away from general travelling and commuting. Secondly, for others, spending more time in the car may mean they want a nicer environment in which to travel therefore a new car may be the solution. Lastly and by no means least, air travel is likely to be an uncomfortable risk for many. As such, combined with a general travel and quarantine restrictions, the UK holiday will become more popular once again and that means more car journeys.  This is by no means an exhaustive summary of reasons for enhanced car demand, but the question is what impact will the aftermath of COVID-19 have on demand and pricing?

From a pricing perspective, the chart below quantifies exactly what has happened to retail car prices during the lockdown period:-

Whole-Market-Movement-as-a-by-Price-Range-During-Lockdown-and-Over-the-Last-Week

This chart looks at pricing performance by pricing category and gives a unique view of retail pricing performance that highlights the value of driving deeper into the data. This view shows that during lockdown only the sub £10k priced cars have dropped in price. This is interesting as when the data is split from an age and mileage profile perspective, the older car category that accounts for vehicles over 10 years old shows an increase of 9.5% in price, which means that it is higher priced older cars that are increasing.

However, generally speaking, this chart reiterates the previous fact that retail pricing has moved upwards during lockdown in all but one category and in the last week a greater level of stability was experienced in all but the £20k to £29k price range. When looking week on week, this price range has been more volatile than others and perhaps reflect either varied consumer demand or changes in used car stock availability and dealer confidence.

In this ever-changing sales environment, it is clear that online retailing will play a bigger part in the retailer group routes to market. Online is fast paced and pricing trends and demand patterns can swiftly alter the type of promotion and stock required to attract new business. Realtime retail driven insight is the best way to remain competitive and in line with the competition, specifically during a period when price increases will bring enhanced profit opportunities. Antiquated wholesale data based on human decision cannot identify these nuances either accurately or quickly enough.

Cazana joins Wayra’s Intelligent Mobility Programme 2020

Disruptive AI start-up Cazana.com is delighted to announce they have been chosen as a cohort in Wayra’s Intelligent Mobility Programme 2020. This programme is a partnership between Connected Places Catapult and Wayra UK and is designed to attract disruptive start-ups with high-growth potential into the UK transport supply chain, while helping them grow into world-leading companies.

Cazana’s success at being included in this programme reflects the evolving motor industry, which in the wake of Covid-19 and concerns over manufacturing is looking to the latest technology to boost growth in the near future.

Cazana’s Head of Commercial, Tom Lawrie-Fussey commented: 

“This is a time of revolution in the motor industry and we’re incredibly excited to be included in this programme and can’t wait to see what opportunities it’s going to bring. Even in these challenging times we are growing and Covid-19 has allowed us to showcase the importance of working with realtime retail data as opposed to the old school way of opinion and bias!” 

2019 was a huge year for Cazana who more than doubled their London team and started the year with a successful crowdfunding campaign. Cazana raised £1.56m on the crowdfunding platform Crowdcube. In the last 6 months, Cazana has also picked up two awards for their SAAS product Cazana Companion winning Best Product or Service in Auto Finance at the International Asset Finance Network Awards 2019 (in December) and receiving the highly commended award for Best New Product or Service at this year’s AM Awards.  

Used Car Pricing During Lockdown 2020

The lockdown period has been a very difficult time for the UK automotive industry, and it is important to understand exactly what happened during the closure of retailer premises. Whilst sales levels dropped by around 80% there was still online sales activity and the retail consumer was still there to buy new and used vehicles. This necessitated a new approach to customer interaction which has relied on digital communication, virtual showrooms and online sales processing.

With wholesale activity almost completely halted and auctions halls dormant, the only way to understand what happened is to look at retail driven realtime insight. The chart below looks at the retail price movements by percentage by fuel type from March 23rd through until May 25th:-

Total-Retail-Price-Market-Movement-During-Lockdown-by-Fuel-Type-Compared-by-£-Movement-and-Change

Data powered by Cazana

This chart clearly shows that at a high level for all but diesel-powered cars, retail pricing has increased over the lockdown period. Looking at the data more deeply, it is clear that the price decline for diesel product came in the high mileage ex-fleet vehicle profile. When pricing moves upwards like this it can be an indication that there is good consumer demand and perhaps a shortage of stock. Given that transactions have been taking place over the course of the lockdown period it would be wise to acknowledge that generally speaking stock levels have been dropping and on that basis, there will be encouraging wholesale demand as the auctions start to do business again.

The issue lies in the fact that the auction and logistics supply chain could take 4 to 6 weeks to get up to speed. Transporters are out of place and cars are with dealers or customers and all need moving to the right place to be prepared for sale. With so many vehicle movements required and the need for effective safety to be in place and enough PPE to be available, there are many challenges. There are only so many vehicles that can be moved in one day with a higher level of safety requirements in play.

The next chart looks at the market from an age and profile perspective and gives more context to high level market movements over the same period:-

Retail-Price-Movement-by-and-by-Age-and-Mileage-Profile-with-Average-Price

Data powered by Cazana

This chart looks at data covering the lockdown period from a slightly different angle and it is immediately clear that 5 age and mileage profiles show a positive increase in prices and 4 show a decline. Given that this is a mid-level market view the data requires deeper analysis to identify exactly where the problems lie and the two main areas of concern are the Ex Fleet cars at 3 and 4 years old which have dipped in price during the lockdown period to the tune of -1.6% and -3.2%. The data shows that significant volatility in the low volume of insight for petrol hybrid models is the cause of the % market move which originates from the change in classification of petrol hybrid vehicles to incorporate stop/start models.  Excluding that spurious data brings the pricing movement to a decline of -1% and -1.56% respectively which is a far more positive representation of market data and highlights the importance of granularity.

Given that the data highlights that overall there has been an upward pricing trend during the lockdown period both from a pure fuel type perspective and an age and mileage profile point of view, it demonstrates that there is confidence in the market and retail consumer demand. Wholesale vendors and retailers using this insight and combining it with the understanding that stock will be more difficult to come by in the coming weeks, are therefore in the main reacting correctly to the effects of market demand and not letting stock go at low money as there is no need to.

With this level of retail data available it is hard to argue the factual accuracy of the pricing output. In addition, it is hard to comprehend how other valuation data providers can justify downward pricing moves of up to 5% on their monthly output. As their decision process is based on manually editing a pot of data that by their own admission is at best 20% of what it had been in volume terms before lockdown, this is arguably irresponsible and could perhaps be considered misleading. Indeed, a forecast that car prices could be 7% lower at this point next year seems also somewhat random and more subjective than factual given the low levels of wholesale data available and certainly contradictory to the positive outlook expressed by so many dealers and advertising portals.

In conclusion, retail pricing is in good health and there is currently a positive trend across the market. In these circumstances a positive and responsible attitude to remarketing, retailing and reporting is appropriate and the use of whole market retail driven insight essential to maximise on the opportunities currently available.

Cazana Weekly Retail Price Watch

Yesterday the car retailers opened their doors for a new chapter in car sales. Nobody knows how long the country will take to return to normal or indeed if there will be a second wave of COVID-19 that will result in further lockdown measures. What is clear is that for the moment new procedures will be in place that will aim to make it safe for customers to return to the showroom and deal in person once again. At the same time, online purchasing will continue to evolve and give a better purchasing experience for those wary of visiting sites to buy a new or used car.

For the time being Cazana will continue to provide weekly pricing insight to keep the industry aware of retail driven price movements where traditional data providers are unable to reliably and responsibly do so due to the lack of auction data. Sales levels in the coming days are expected to increase quite swiftly and there is every possibility that the supply chain will not be able to keep up with wholesale demand for cars and this will pose a problem for some weeks to come. Staff are now back in place with many, but not all, having returned from the isolation of furlough and eager to get back to doing what they love best – selling cars.

From a pricing perspective, the chart below looks at price changes as a percentage for petrol-powered cars week on week from May 26th against May 19th.

Whole-Market-Petrol-Retail-Price-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-2605-against-Period

Data powered by Cazana

Unlike the previous week where retail prices lifted by 2.27%, retail prices for petrol powered cars have shown a minimal increase in pricing of just 0.03%. This is still good news as there have been drops in pricing in just 2 sectors, the largest being -1.34% for the Luxury Car sector which accounts for just 0.23% of all retail advertised cars. However, this drop affects the whole sector average movement.

The biggest increase in pricing has come in the D or Large car sector which at 1.74% represents an increase of £334 per car bringing the average price to £19,202. This is quite a shift for this sector and perhaps suggests a shortage of replacement stock and a good level of consumer enquiry, which are two things that the retailers will see manifest themselves in the coming weeks.

Retail pricing for diesel powered cars has also remained firm, and the overall market uplift in the most recent week has been a minimal 0.1%, but this is still good news as it reinforces the fact that retailers are not dropping prices unnecessarily.

Data powered by Cazana

There has been a more varied performance across the diesel fuel type in the last period although the overall market % movement has been most adversely affected by the A Sector Supermini pricing which fell by -0.97%. This market sector is quite volatile having moved upwards by 2.27% in the previous period. The volume of cars is low and therefore shifts can be quite large week on week and the diesel superminis represent just 0.03% of all retail adverts in today’s retail market.

The largest upward move came for the B Small diesel car sector which at 0.43% represents an increase of £31 per car with this sector taking 1.1% of total retail adverts. For diesel powered cars the largest sector is the J or SUV sector which represents 16.9% of total retail adverts. With a drop of -0.31% the average reduction in price per car was £65.

Pricing in the petrol hybrid sector was also positive overall in the last 7-day period as shown below.

Whole-Market-Petrol-Hybrid-Retail-Pricing-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-2605-against-Period-1905-

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows that all but one market sector in the petrol hybrid category showed an increase in retail pricing. The overall sector move was an increase of 0.39% which is good news generally speaking. Interestingly the largest uplift came in the S or Sports market sector where pricing increased by 0.82% which represents an uplift of £473 per car where the average price is now £57,538. This is off the back of the large jump in pricing for Sports cars between weeks 19 and 20.

The only sector to show a decline was the sparsely populated small car sector that represents 0.46% of total retail adverts which incidentally is almost the same as it was at the start of the lockdown period. Now at an average price of £13,066 the drop in price was just £23 per car.

For the first time in a couple of weeks BEV pricing has shown an overall increase of 0.13% across all the market sectors as shown in the chart below.

Whole-Market-BEV-Retail-Pricing-Movement-by-Market-Sector-7-Day-Period-2605-against-Period-1905

Data powered by Cazana

There have been two sectors that have recorded a decrease in retail pricing with the largest move of -4.58% coming from the Supermini sector. Accounting for 0.01% of the market this should not be of great concern, but it does affect the headline whole fuel type average movement, and with this sector removed the average price change moves to an increase of 0.42%.

It is also of note that this is the first fuel type that shows an uplift in retail pricing for the J Sector SUV cars. The SUV sector recorded a drop in retail pricing in all other fuel types, and this is therefore an area to watch in the coming weeks. There has long been concern for pricing of this type of car based on the volumes returning to the used car market. It will be interesting to watch retail prices in the coming weeks.

The next chart shows retail pricing movements by fuel type in 2020 compared to what happened in 2019 as it is crucial to understand the difference in pricing trends between a normal market and this year’s COVID  affected trading environment.

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows that in the final week before the reopening of the showrooms, retail pricing has increased slightly which is a positive view given the circumstances. It is a different picture to the pricing trend in 2019 where the shift for BEV drew the trendline downwards, although also important to note that for all other fuel types retail pricing changes were similarly low. However, last year’s retail price trend without BEV’s was still slightly downwards whereas 2020 is on a positive track.

Now the showrooms are open it will be very interesting to understand what will happen to retail pricing. The use of real-time insight will give retailers the opportunity to identify the slightest change in the market and facilitate the chance to make the most of the opportunities that present themselves. At the moment factual insight is so much more valuable than data based on human decisioning and will give the best chance of a higher return on the available stock.