Cazana: driving vehicle manufacturers towards a mobility services future

Find out how vehicle manufacturers can navigate various challenges and explore new ways to unlock revenues in a time of unprecedented change.

Vehicle manufacturers are currently facing significant challenges. Targeted from every side, they need to shift their focus to new ways to unlock revenues. This free white paper explores how vehicle manufacturers can survive and thrive in the future mobility space by providing both consumers and new B2B clients with optimised vehicle solutions.

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Cazana’s data-driven insights reveal the truth about vehicles, what sells, what doesn’t, what’s future-proof, who’s getting it right, and how. To find out more about how we can help you, please get in contact via sales@cazana.com.

Cazana’s Rustmap – rusty cars and where to find them

Over the last 6 months, there has been an array of bad weather conditions including one hurricane (Ophelia) and 21 storms in the UK including the more notable ones such as Storm Brian, Storm Georgina and Storm Aileen. All of this rainfall and harsh weather takes an unfortunate toll on our vehicles.

With this in mind, we have searched the extensive Cazana database and highlighted the counties in the UK that have the highest proportion of rusty cars, and identified which are the most rust prone. This was identified by looking at the volume of cars that have rust and corrosion warnings noted on MOT data.

It will come as no surprise that 5 of the rustiest counties for car owners in the UK are situated in Scotland where the weather conditions can often be harsher.

Top 10 rustiest counties in the UK for car owners

Here you have it, the worst offending counties for rusty cars.

Another unsurprising fact is that the top 3 counties with the highest proportion of rusty cars are close to the sea. While living close to the ocean may look stunning and have so many wonderful perks, unfortunately, it can be a tougher environment for cars. Certain environmental factors such as salt and fog near the coast can cause rust on a vehicle and accelerate vehicle corrosion.

  1. West Dunbartonshire, Scotland
  2. Fife, Scotland
  3. Northumberland, North East England
  4. Roxburghshire, Scotland
  5. Banffshire, Scotland
  6. Midlothian, Scotland
  7. Herefordshire, West Midlands
  8. Durham, Central England
  9. Lincolnshire, Central England
  10. Yorkshire, Northern England

Other counties that are high on the list include Lanarkshire, West Lothian, Angus and Flintshire. There is a clear pattern of either being close to the sea and somewhere where the weather conditions are tougher.

The counties with the lowest proportion of rusty cars

So in contrast to the list above, the counties with the lowest volume of rusty cars are mostly in the south and Wales.

  1. Antrim, Northern Ireland
  2. Middlesex, South East England
  3. Hampshire, South England
  4. Oxfordshire, South East England
  5. Surrey, South East England
  6. Denbighshire, North East Wales
  7. Kent, South East England
  8. Caernarfonshire, Wales

The top 10 rustiest cars in the UK

It’s surprising to see the nations favourite Ford Fiesta on here and not only that but it is top of the list. With so many on our roads and often older it is possible that they are also less well cared for. Land Rover and Jeep, however, are not as surprising to see on this list as they are often used heavily in off-road conditions where water and dirt are commonplace.

  1. Ford Fiesta
  2. Vauxhall Corsa
  3. Land Rover Range Rover Sport
  4. Ford StreetKa
  5. Toyota Rav-4
  6. Jeep Wrangler
  7. Volkswagen Polo Hatch
  8. MINI Hatchback
  9.  Ford Ka
  10. Fiat Grande Punto

What are the main causes of rust in vehicles?

rusty car in the sea

Rust is the reddish-brown/yellow colour that coats iron or steel when exposed to air and moisture. Our vehicles can be a big investment and financial commitment and to ensure we protect them we need to first understand what the main causes of rust are.

  • Location  

As fun as living near the coast is, as we mentioned above, it can take a toll on your car. Both the salt and moisture (water) in the air can cause vehicles to rust. Therefore it is no surprise that 6 out of the top 10 rustiest counties in this list are close to the sea.

  • Salt

Most road users in colder places will use salt to get rid of ice and snow from their vehicles and it is also used extensively to keep the roads clear. However, lengthy exposure to salt can be harmful to vehicles and make them more susceptible to corrosion as it gets caught in the nooks and crannies of the car.

  • Weather conditions

As we already mentioned water and moisture is a big cause of rust on and in cars. Rain, snow and fog are big factors in why our cars rust and corrode over time.

  • Neglect

Like anything in life if we ignore a bad situation it will eventually get worse. Not checking your car regularly and not keeping up with maintenance and more important cleanliness will cause minor instances of rust to flourish and turn into more serious issues.

Top 6 ways to prevent rust in vehicles

prevent rust in vehicles

  1. Regular maintenance. This may sound obvious but keep up with regular repairs as it can make all the difference when something is caught early.
  2. Inspect your car regularly and act on what you find covering body scratches and dings as quickly as possible
  3. Wash your car regularly. Make sure wheel arches and the underbody are regularly cleaned.
  4. Keep your car in a sheltered area. If you are lucky enough to have a garage or sheltered area to park make sure you use it to help protect your car from harsh weather conditions. If you don’t have a sheltered place to park then consider getting a car cover.
  5. Wax. Get your vehicle waxed twice a year (especially if you live near the seaside) and consider having a body protection treatment added.  
  6. Keep the inside of your car clean too. Don’t just wash the outside of the car, keep the interiors clean as well especially during Winter when there is more salt on the roads.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

The used car market in the last week has recorded some very interesting activity as retailers continue to work with Lockdown 3. The virtual showrooms are working hard at generating new leads which would appear to be notably improving day by day and with the month well underway sales appear to be exceeding expectations.

The charts below highlight the market conditions experienced over the last week with a full year trend line shown in yellow: –

Data powered by Cazana

However, the used car market is showing some fascinating nuances, and the chart below looks at headline Retail Price movements by key age profile to put some context into the increase in the Retail Price Index recorded over the week commencing January 11th. It is also important to consider the drop in average retail price for sold vehicles which suggests that sales activity has been focused on the Older Car profile.

Price-by-age-chart-2

Data powered by Cazana

The previous chart qualifies the overall increase of +3.8% in the Retail Price Index week on week, and it is clear to see that there have been two age profiles that have seen a marked increase in retail price. As suspected the Old Car age profile leads the way with a 9.8% uplift, closely followed by the Pre Reg profile at 8.6%. The one area with a notable drop is the Ex Fleet sector where prices have dipped by -10.1% although it is important to understand the volume profile of these Age profiles in relation to the total market representation which is highlighted in the chart below.

sales-by-age-chart-3

Data powered by Cazana

As the chart shows the largest retail advert market share belongs to the Part Exchange profile this week although the Old car profile follows closely behind where Retail Prices dipped by 2.8%.

In summary, the market has seen a large increase in sales and the Retail Price Index week on week and this shows a positive view for the retailers and the health of the market overall. This has been combined with an uplift on leads generated from virtual showrooms and there is significant evidence that working with realtime pricing data is helping retailers to properly adapt to the “new normal”.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

Week Commencing January 11th to January 4th 2021

January can be an interesting month for the automotive sector and has historically been a period of both improving sales and increasing retail pricing. Given that this seasonal boost has waned in recent years and the market standard for data reporting has shifted from month to at worst weekly updates, the second week of January had been of great concern to the industry as a whole. The sales trajectory under the current virus management measures and Lockdown 3 was under great threat and the positive news is that although sales are lower than would have been the case a year ago, the impact has been less than anticipated.

Retail consumer demand in the used car market has remained consistent and the online sales journey coupled with a click and collect or delivery services seem to be working well. Retailers have remained sensible over the furlough position and customer service levels appear to be of high quality and thus encouraging online sales nationwide. Of note is the action taken by one retailer who has decided to halt sales completely during the lockdown although this seems to be an isolated view and with the right care, safe collection and delivery of cars is widely accepted as feasible and achievable which means that the “new normal” is working for the time being

The charts below highlight the market conditions experienced over the last week with a full year trend line shown in yellow:-

cazana chart 1

Data powered by Cazana

This week’s data highlights that the second week of January has seen quite an improvement in sales activity with an increase of 47.5% over the levels in the previous week. Whilst the full year trend is still in decline this is a welcome boost for the retailers and therefore the wholesale environment. In addition, the second chart from the left also highlights that that number of new retail adverts is also improving with an increase of 46.5% over those added during the week commencing January 4th offering retail consumers more choice of stock.

In addition to these positives, the market also saw an increase in the Retail Price Index highlighted in the fourth chart on the far right. At 0.5% for the week with an Average Retail Price of £12,271 per sold car in the UK market today this represents a jump in the pricing of £61 per car. It is wise to note that this drop in Average Retail price is a drop of -0.6% from the previous week and this also represents a drop of -10.1% in average retail price in the last year in part highlighting the increased demand and subsequent sales of older cars during the course of the full year. However, the positive is that the Retail Price Index shows that pricing over the last 12 months has increased by 2.8% overall.

Looking at retail pricing in more detail for week commencing January 11th against the previous week, the chart below shows an interesting portrait of the current pricing movements: –

chart two

Data powered by Cazana

This chart shows the retail price movement as a percentage week on week broken out by key age profile and given the overall market price movement was an increase of 0.5% there are some interesting changes in the data on closer analysis. The majority of age profiles are showing an uplift in retail pricing which is good news and also of note because this weeks data suggests that perhaps the historical seasonal uplift is still in play. It also highlights that traditional new year sales promotions have not been a big part of the industry and this is likely due to the current lockdown but also suggests that retailers have learnt that in the current climate there is no need for them to discount prices to generate sales where the retail consumer is keen to find a specific car of their choice and benefit from a safe and secure sales journey.

What is also evident from this chart is that the older age profiles are the ones that have been suffering in the last week period. This is of note as it suggests that those older cars that are sold through the smaller retailers and traders are the vehicles that are showing a price drop. This is possibly because these cars are selling in less volume as it is the larger retailers that sell the later plate newer cars and that those retailer’s have in general adopted the online journey more successfully.

On this basis, it is a possibility that older vehicles are selling more slowly perhaps as a direct result of perceived trust in a smaller retailers capability of safely handling sales during this lockdown period or that the online profile of the smaller retailers is not as high profile as the larger retailer groups. There is probably of a mix of both sentiments at play.

It is fair to say that in the last 6 months retail pricing for older cars has shown higher levels of volatility overall and as a result, this is an area of the market that needs to be monitored closely with some regular in-depth analysis to spot market nuances and opportunities.

Looking at the market from a different perspective the chart below looks at sales performance week on week by age profile:-

chart 3

Data powered by Cazana

The chart shows what the volume of sales were as a % in relation to the previous week and the good news is that this gives context to the data in the summary plots at the beginning of the document where the high level increase in sales was identified as being an uplift of 47.5% on the previous week. Every market sector except for Ex Fleet Old, has shown an improvement which is very encouraging although there is a possibility that until Lockdown 3 ends, week on week volatility may creep in. That will provide both opportunities and threats that only realtime insight can help resolve.

In conclusion, the last week has brought both challenges and opportunity to the UK automotive sector. Lockdown 3 remains a blocker, and the general public continues to take pleasure in finding holes in the advice given by the government that will inevitably result in a longer lockdown period. The positive is that consumer demand has not disappeared, and modern automotive retailers are striving to meet the demands of what many are temporarily referring to as the “new normal”.

It is important to recognise that Cazana are in the unique position of not having its core data sources impacted by the reduction or cessation of market activity. Given the automated advanced technical nature of the data collection and being focussed on a retail back methodology there is no other whole market data source available to the industry. As proven during the first lockdown, fact-based data devoid of human editing is the only way to ensure the highest and most relevant “industry standard” quality of data on which modern automotive businesses can base commercial strategy that will maximise stock and ROI opportunities.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

The last week has been full of concern over the current levels of sales activity in the UK retail sector as a whole as the nation battles with an ever-growing tide of COVID cases. The government has been looking at the measures currently in place to stem the flow of infection and as such, there is the likelihood of further and more extreme restrictions on the freedom of movement and trading levels currently permitted by the public. This is without a doubt a low period and the impact of new stricter measures will potentially further damage the economy overall and most importantly the automotive sector.

As it stands today, the vast majority of the industry is abiding by the rules and the click and collect sales process adopted by as many car retailers as possible is generating sales at around 60% of normal levels. However, there is the possibility that this will be curtailed should a full cessation of sales to all but keyworkers be implemented. This is a delicate time for the country and there is no doubt that it is affecting consumer demand levels.

The charts below highlight the market conditions experienced over the last week with a full year trendline shown in yellow: –

Data powered by Cazana

The data shows that the biggest change in the last week has come in the form of a decline in sales which affirms the market sentiment at the moment and indicates a drop of -34.9% over the previous week and a total of -45% from the average sales levels overall. On a more positive note, retail advertised listings have only declined by -4.8% suggesting that retailers understand the need to keep digital forecourts full and appealing to potential customers.

From a retail pricing perspective, the news is even better and the data highlights that overall retail pricing increased by some 0.2% over the previous week. Whilst this may not be a significant figure the relevance is in the fact that there has been no rush by retailers to drop prices to attract business. Frankly speaking, there is no need to do so for the time being. As the industry learnt during 2020 retail price drops did not materially increase sales volumes and the consumer is more interested in the car they want rather than being tempted by just any cheap vehicle that might meet their needs but not satisfy their desires.

The other key consideration is that experience following the lockdown periods in 2020 showed that following the reopening of car showrooms there was a burst of pent up demand. The majority of businesses have made contingency plans to be able to cope with current conditions and although not ideal, a further enforced delay in trading is feasible.

Looking at retail pricing for week commencing January 4th against the previous week, the chart below shows an interesting portrait of the current pricing landscape:

whole-market-retail-price-movementsx

Data powered by Cazana

It is immediately clear from this chart that THE older end of the market showed a significant upturn in pricing and the largest increase is evident for the Older High Mileage cars with an uplift of 37.3%. It is important to acknowledge that this profile represents a very small percentage of the overall market but also key to recognise that this is supported by a jump of 16.6% in retail pricing of Old Cars meaning vehicles of over 10 years in age. This is followed by the Ex Fleet Old profile which experienced an uplift of 6.8% although this profile is also very small.

In contrast, the Late and Low profile recorded the largest drop in prices at -5.7% and given this accounts for a significant proportion of the overall market this helps offset the overall price movement to a market wide increase of 0.5%. This is closely followed by the Ex PCP Young profile with a dip of 4.7% in pricing.

There is little doubt that there are some interesting dynamics at play in today’s market and this poses all sorts of issues for retailer nationwide. With such swift and widespread shifts in retail pricing it can be very difficult to address the opportunities as they arise and at this point in the overall market the ability to identify and address opportunity is second to none which is why live retail pricing is essential for modern auto retail pricing.

Looking at the market from a different perspective the chart below looks at sales performance week on week by age profile:

sales-by-age-group-copyData powered by Cazana

Given that we know that sales were down by -34.9% week on week the chart above highlights the volume of sales by age profile. It is interesting to note that comparing the last two periods it is the older car profiles that have once again shown an increase in sales volume. The Older Car sales profile representing vehicles over 10 years old increased by 4.7% and Old High Mileage cars showed a significant increase of 16.1%. The best of the rest was the Older Part Exchange profile showing a drop of -14.4% and as such, it is clear that older vehicles have the sales momentum at the moment. The concern here is that perhaps these vehicles are being sold by smaller retailers who are not abiding by the lockdown rules, however, it could also indicate that the demand for cheap transport has bounced again in the face of the spread of the virus as it did previously during lockdown 1.

Looking at the poor performers,  it is the Ex Fleet cars that recorded the largest drop in sales with a decline of -34.75%. This is slightly worrying on the face of it but Cazana can provide further analysis to identify where the issues lay. What is obvious is that any car under the age of 7.5 years old has been hot with a significant drop in sales and thus in line with the headline data.

To summarise, the 2021 New Year market has been unique in the fact that unlike previous years it has not come with a marked increase in sales. This is by no means to say that once the lockdown is over there will not be a bounce of pent up demand to bring the year back in line with expectations although it is very difficult to identify what the expectations should be for the coming 12 months with so much being dependent in the insidious COVID infection. What is clear is that right now the automotive industry is holding its breath to determine whether a full shutdown will put the majority of sales on pause or whether the economy can be sustained that little bit longer.

It is important to recognise that Cazana are in the unique position of not having its core data sources impacted by the reduction or cessation of market activity. Given the automated advanced technical nature of the data collection and being focussed on a retail back methodology there is no other whole market data source available to the industry. As proven during the first lockdown, fact-based data devoid of human editing is the only way to ensure the highest and most relevant “industry standard” quality of data on which modern automotive businesses can base commercial strategy that will maximise stock and ROI opportunities.

Cazana Pricing Insight – The Festive Period 2020

This week’s insight covers the festive period and Cazana has revised the format and analysis of market data to ensure a consistent and stable view of retail pricing activity, and as such the charts will be unfamiliar in comparison to previous weekly pricewatch releases. In the coming weeks, new metrics will be introduced and greater more valuable insight shared designed to give a transparent and accurate view of market activity.

It is fair to say that new and used car sales performance during this period was disappointingly lower than expected, although this was largely due to the ever-changing shifts in the COVID Tier structure and the politically driven nuances of different parts of the UK. The essential need for a balance between the safety of the population and the management of the economy does not make the task easy, but suffice to say that the retail consumer appeared to have lost patience and focussed more on the family around them over the festive period.

New car registrations were down by 10.9% compared to the same month in 2019. The data clearly shows that the Private Sector bore the brunt of the decline with market share dropping 3.2%, compared to the previous year. The full 2020 figure was also lower than expected reflecting a decline of 29.4%.

From a used car market perspective the charts below show the headline data during the period and the data shows the impact of the changing tiers:-

Data powered by Cazana

These charts show a significant decline across all the key market indicators and taken out of context might make one believe that the market has completely disintegrated, but it must be noted that the impact of the changing tiers has not been the sole influence behind the decline in numbers. Seasonality also plays a big part and what is of interest is the change in the structure of the type of vehicles on sale and this indicates a shift in focus for the retailers nationwide.

The data shows that sales for the period were slightly worse than the rest of December at a decline of 43.3% and this is likely due to the apathy generated by the change in the tier structure combined with the variable weather conditions. It does serve to highlight the significant development of “mouse to house” solutions and the willingness of the consumer to purchase used cars online. A year ago the industry could not have coped with this volume of online sales and the retail consumer would not have had the confidence in operational delivery from the retailers.

Given the large drop in sales during the period the chart below adds some context to the change by looking at sales volumes by age profile:-

Whole Market Sales by Age Profile

Data powered by Cazana

Whilst the overall market move was a decline of -43.3% there are a couple of surprises in the data as can be seen in the chart above. Not all age profiles declined and the volume of sales in the Old Car profile increased by 10.9%. This is interesting because this age of car does not lend itself to online click and collect activity due to potential condition discrepancies. The largest drop affected the Late and Low profile at -56% although it is of note that the older the car the less the decline with the Older Part Exchange profile recording a decline of 20%.

The chart below puts another lens on used car sales activity by looking at the decline in sale from a fuel type perspective: –

Whole Market Sales by Fuel Type

Whole Market Sales by Fuel Type

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above may come as a surprise to some as the biggest mover is the electric vehicle sector with sales volume dropping by a total of -57%. Hybrid fuel types did not do well either leaving greater stability for petrol powered cars at a drop of -45% and diesel faring even better with a decline of 41% in sales volume.

In conclusion activity over the festive period has been uncomfortably low in comparison to recent weeks although much of this has been down to the changing in tiers and further enforced lockdown implemented to try and curtail the spread of COVID 19. The resilience of the retailers and the automotive industry as a whole should be commended as the transition to the “click and collect” model has shown benefits during this period. 

Realtime retail pricing insight based on whole market data rather than on just a singular retail advertising platform is proving consistently more valuable than subjective human-decision based valuations provided by some of the legacy data providers. Edited wholesale driven data is not reliable when compared with the Cazana “Industry Standard” retail driven pricing solutions now available to the UK automotive industry.

 

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

COVID 19 continues to have a significant impact on both the country and the economy and recent changes to the tier structure across the nation have resulted in a tremendous increase in the number of retail showrooms that have had to close. The spread of the mutated variant of the virus has also further hit consumer confidence and the retail consumer may have focussed more attention on what they are no longer able to do during the festive season rather than buying cars which is a bit of a worry. There is also an increased realisation that a further full lockdown is likely to come into effect early in 2021 even though the vaccine is now being administered to those in most need.

Those car retailers that focussed on implementing comprehensive online sales functions earlier in the year are now prepped and ready to benefit from the hard work involved in the change in operational structure required to trade effectively in a fully digital manner. Mouse to house solutions have never been so important for the industry and the perceived threat of the new online retailers such as Cazoo and Cinch to the traditional car sales function has become an ever-present reality.

With new car sales struggling, the used car sector has been through a period of greater volatility in the last few weeks. A number of predominantly sales-based staff have remained on furlough and look set to stay out of the showrooms for the foreseeable future. The fact that the furlough scheme has been further extended should give a clue as to the government’s expectations of a timescale back to normality.

Looking at the market as a whole, retail pricing has dropped by -0.25% across all age and mileage profiles, the details of which are highlighted in the chart below. This is a milder move than in recent weeks and perhaps suggests that the industry is becoming more comfortable with digital trading conditions.

Whole Market Retail Price Change as a % by Market Sector Profile W/c - 14/12 against W/c - 07/12

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above reviews retail pricing by market sector profile in the week commencing December 14th in comparison to the previous week. The blue bars show the retail pricing move as a percentage week on week and the grey bars show the change in retail advert market share based on whole market data. The orange line highlights the overall current market share.

The largest movement in the market in the last week has come for the retail pricing in the Part Exchange profile with a notable drop of -1.26%. This is an important shift, as this profile of cars represents a touch over 25% of the total retail advertised vehicle parc and translates to a downward move of £190 per car where the average retail price is £15,072. It is also worth noting that the second-largest downward price move came for the Late and Low profile which represents just over 17% of the total retail advert parc although this area of the market has also seen an increase in market share which is up by 0.77% and as such may be related to supply and demand.

Only two profiles have shown an increase in their average retail price, and it is fair to say that an uplift of 0.95% for Ex PCP product is encouragingly positive, specifically where the retail advert market share has also improved, albeit marginally. It is also worth mentioning that from a seasonal perspective, the industry is approaching the traditional “sale” period and a dip in retail pricing might not be unexpected at this time of year, but the anecdotal commentary suggesting the decline in pricing is related to small to mid-size dealers that are less involved with realtime modern auto retail pricing is also a validation of the need for top quality realtime insight from the whole market to maximise on ROI.

Using an alternative lens on the market the chart below looks at retail price changes as a percentage by looking at pricing profile, and at the same time compares the matching period in 2020 with 2019 as an indicator of market consistency and similarity.

Whole Market Retail Price Change as a % by Price Range W/c - 14/12 against - W/c - 07/12

Data powered by Cazana

It is important to note that the data included in this analysis covers retail pricing performance of vehicles up to £90k in value, as above this price point the individual vehicle volumes can be low and volatility can be high.

The chart above is fascinating as it shows that there has been a 0.77% increase in retail pricing for the sub £10k car. In the first chart, the Old Car profile that is normally associated with this price range showed a nominal -0.06% drop in prices. A number of Part Exchange profile cars might also fall into this category too and the first chart showcased the largest drop in pricing was for that profile, so perhaps there are some complicated market nuances at play that only more detailed analysis will reveal. As industry leaders, Cazana are best placed to show how that would influence dealer stock profiles by way of the Cazana Companion and Cazana Stockview retail price management tools.

To summarise, it is fair to say that all things considered the economy and consumer confidence is going through a particularly difficult period. The last few weeks and specifically the last 7 days have posed some really challenging questions to a weary business community and the more disillusioned retail consumer. However, the Automotive sector remains fairly lively and from a business perspective, car retailers in many cases are “match fit” to trade effectively in this new and ever-changing environment.

Realtime retail pricing insight based on whole market data rather than on just a singular retail advertising platform is proving consistently more valuable than subjective human-decision based valuations provided by some of the legacy data providers. Edited wholesale driven data is not reliable when compared with the Cazana “Industry Standard” retail driven pricing solutions now available to the UK automotive industry.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

Last week was the first full week of trading after the reopening of the retail showrooms in England and as such the opportunity to return to a semblance of the “new” normality. As expected, there was something of a rush as pent up demand flared and the majority of retailers reported a good burst of sales activity which will go some way to helping cover the lockdown period. Sales levels during Lockdown 2 had dipped by 30% to 35% and now is the time to recover that shortfall.

As a result of the reopening many staff returned from furlough although it is fair to say there is still evidence of furlough being used to cover the costs of lower staffing levels often required during what is usually a quieter period of trading due to the festive and new year period. Hope remains that these roles are safe, and that staff will return in full once the new year begins. Many of the major retail groups have given assurance that this will be the case.

From a used car perspective, the retailers have generally taken a positive stance and although recent weeks have seen a general dip in pricing it has not been over and above what the market would ordinarily expect during December. That is not to say that there are not pockets of both stability and volatility and this is essentially where opportunity and threat lies in wait for the slower retailers that have yet to embrace realtime automotive retail pricing techniques to enhance profitability and stock turn.

Looking at the market as a whole, retail pricing has dropped by a mild 0.38% across all age and mileage profiles as highlighted in the chart below. It should be noted that now the retail showrooms have reopened there is a greater level of volatility for certain fuel types that had settled during the lockdown period. Also, of note is that the retail price movement last week was lower than it had been for some weeks.

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above reviews retail pricing by market sector profile in the week commencing December 7th in comparison to the previous week. The blue bars show the retail pricing move as a percentage week on week and the grey bars show the change in retail advert market share based on whole market data. The orange line highlights the overall current market share as a whole.

The chart clearly shows that the overall market trend is a decline in pricing, and it is interesting to see that the Old car profile has felt the brunt of the drop in pricing having fallen by -3.04%. The Old Car sector has been through some marked changes in the last 6 weeks and this has in part been driven by a lack of demand that many are putting to the fact that the need for a second car or alternative to public transport has been satisfied. It is also worth considering that the profile of stock may have changed, and Cazana are happy to work with retailers to help reveal the opportunities that lie in both remarketing and retailing stock of this age. At a high level, the average retail price of a car in this age profile has decreased notably in recent weeks suggesting a different selection of cars in the market.

It is also perhaps not a coincidence that Old cars now represent almost 26% of all retail adverts with a 4.17% growth in retail advert market share. This is the only age profile to have shown a growth in the market representation and greater analysis will reveal whether this is because of improved sales for cars in other key age profiles such as Late and Low and Part Exchange. Between these three profiles, they account for almost 68% of total retail adverts.

Using an alternative lens on the market the chart below looks at retail price changes as a percentage by looking at pricing profile, and at the same time compares the same period in 2020 with 2019 as an indicator of market consistency and similarity.

Data powered by Cazana

It is important to note that the data included in this analysis covers retail pricing performance of vehicles up to £90k in value, as above this price point the individual vehicle volumes can be low and volatility can be high.

The chart above immediately shows that the pricing pattern for the same week in 2020 is broadly similar to that of 2019 with limited movement for all price profiles except for the sub £10k area. This is reassuring as it shows that the market is performing broadly in line with expectations. It is worth noting that for cars over £90k in value the movement averaged at 0.36% although the delta was very wide highlighting the danger of including this data in the overall analysis.

Also, when looking at the movement in retail pricing of sub £10k cars in 2020 has shown the marked decline of -3.27% in contrast to the increase experienced in 2019. This supports the assumptions that can be taken from the first chart and highlights the need for care when either retailing or remarketing cars of this age and price. There is significant volatility in the detail of the analysis relating to fuel type and mileage and as such greater insight is essential to ensure a robust commercial strategy that will need to change almost daily to maximise on sales and profit opportunity.

In conclusion, the last week has seen some positive and negative influences and retail pricing that will have a material effect on used car retailing and valuation for part exchange. There are also implications for lenders and those dealing with forbearance. The next couple of weeks up to and including the festive period will be fascinating and pricing right and valuing older product to come in part exchange will also be complex.

As such there is little doubt that realtime insight is a marvellous, accurate and cost-effective way of ensuring funders, retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends to facilitate continued enhanced financial return. Subjective human-decision based valuation is not reliable when compared with the Cazana’s retail driven pricing solutions now available to the UK automotive industry.

Cazana Client Case Study: Esure Group

Cazana is enabling insurers across the UK to generate fair total loss settlement values and to more easily identify fraudulent claims. Ian Brown, Engineering Services Manager at Esure Group, explains that using Cazana ‘gives us confidence that we are offering fair and accurate values to our customers.’

Download the full case study today to find out what Esure Group think of Cazana Companion.


If you would like to learn more or try out Cazana’s tools for yourself, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us via sales@cazana.com.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

The last week has been full of conflicting views and varied commercial performance across the UK ranging from a reported monthly drop in consumer confidence to a generally positive sales performance across car retailers who had expected a quiet week overall. The general public appears to be taking less notice of the government rules and Lockdown 2.0 has seen only a moderate decrease in the number of cars on the road and at the same time significant public presence in “essential” retail outlets. The abuse of guidelines and rules may have lasting consequences and the somewhat illogical “tier” allocation by the ruling party will not help an already contentious set of circumstances.

On a more positive note, the used car market is moving from strength to strength and online sales levels continue to surprise many retailers. The car buying consumer does still have an appetite to change their car and as such, there is a positive expectation that once the showrooms re-open there will be a further release of pent up demand that will go some way towards bridging the sales gap forced on the automotive sector this year. Of interest, and also concern is the repeated comment from retailers that they may not un-furlough all sales staff before the festive season, choosing to keep the top performers in play and allowing them the opportunity to sell more cars whilst the operational processing is handled by support staff or enhanced online sales mechanisms.

From a used car pricing perspective, the news remains encouraging in that although the overall market position has declined by 0.51% on the previous week, the retail pricing data is generally more stable than it has been for some weeks. However, given the current economic position and the potential seasonality factors, ongoing analysis and review remain essential. With this in mind, the chart below compares last week’s pricing levels with the previous week:-

Whole Market Retail Price Change as a % by Market Sector Profile W/c - 23/11 against W/c - 16/11

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above reviews retail pricing by market sector profile in the week commencing November 23rd in comparison to the previous week. The blue bars show the retail pricing move as a percentage week on week and the grey bars show the change in retail advert market share based on whole market data. The orange line highlights the current market share as a whole.

Although the headline retail price movement has declined by around 0.5% for the third week in a row, it is worth highlighting that this weekly movement is not only in line with seasonal expectations but also in tune with the Cazana pricing predictions given during the summer when competitor expectations were for a continued increase in pricing.

Of specific interest in the last week is the shape of the market shift, and underlines the need for fact-based, unedited, realtime information. The largest change in pricing came in the Old Car profile which had been steadily declining for some weeks. In the last seven days, prices have risen by a significant 4.73% whilst at the same time, the volume of retail advertised cars has dropped by 3.28% suggesting that the laws of supply and demand have been in full effect. It is also worth noting that essentially all cars over the age of 7 years have increased in price. This implies that the tail off in sales due to Lockdown 2 has affected younger and perhaps more expensive cars.

The price increase for older age profile cars has been offset by downward activity in the younger age and mileage profiles as shown in the first chart. The question is whether this is due to a reticence to purchase more expensive cars completely online or not, although this would seem unlikely. More detailed analysis of the base data would undoubtedly cast more light on the situation.

Taking a different view on the market the chart below looks at retail price changes as a percentage by looking at pricing profile and at the same time compares the same period in 2020 with 2019 as an indicator of market similarity.

Whole Market Retail Price Change as a % by Price Range W/c - 23/11 against - W/c - 16/11

Data powered by Cazana

It is important to note that the data included in this analysis covers retail pricing performance of vehicles up to £90k in value, as above this price point the individual vehicle volumes can be low and volatility can be high.

This insight above supports the data in the first chart and shows that it is the sub £10k cars that are moving up in price which correlates with the previous information although this is in contrast to data from previous weeks that indicated that the older vehicle market was in decline. Across the remaining pricing profiles, there has been greater movement than was experienced in 2019 and although perhaps surprising to some, the retail price position remains encouraging all things considered. Perhaps of note is that for most price ranges movements in 2020 have been the opposite to those experienced in 2019.

In summary, the used car market seems to have changed in the last week with a switch from what seemed to be a declining old car market back to a position that was experienced during the summer months when older car demand and pricing was strong. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming week. The showrooms will have reopened and although recent weeks have seen used car sales volumes running at up to and in some cases beyond 60% of pre-Lockdown 2.0 levels, the question of perceived potential pent up demand will have been answered.

There is little doubt that changes in the used car market in the last week spotlight the fact that realtime insight is a marvellous, accurate and cost-effective way of ensuring funders, retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends to facilitate continued enhanced financial return.

Cazana Weekly Pricing Insight

Retail consumer confidence in the past week has taken a marked upturn following the Prime Minister’s indication of the new plans surrounding the current lockdown and the path towards the Festive Season and the New Year. Whilst the UK population will always seek to find the negatives, the message is quite clear in that from December 2nd the UK will be moving to a tiered lockdown structure relating to the regional spread of the virus and as such allowing more businesses to return to socially distanced trading conditions. Also, up to three households will be able to meet in an exclusive bubble over the Festive period. As expected, there is an element of common sense and personal judgement that accompanies this guidance.

This development is important because of the feel-good factor this brings to the consumer and population as a whole and the critical reliance on a common-sense approach during this period will determine what happens in the New Year. All being well and government guidelines and advice heeded, the automotive sector looks set to return to “socially distanced normality” nationwide in the next week.

Last week the car market took a further step towards normal sales levels. Cazana insight suggests that retail sales are running at between 55% and 60% of normal levels and data highlights that for the time being some retailers are not restocking with the number of retail adverts placed each week running at a lower level. This is likely due to the fact that many buying teams were put on furlough as soon as the second lockdown was announced and are only now returning to the business in readiness for a perceived boost in sales once the showrooms reopen once again. There will be increasing pressure to find stock in the next couple of weeks to satisfy demand.

Considering the current market conditions, it is vital to monitor what is happening with retail prices and the chart below compares last week’s pricing levels with the previous week:-

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Market-Sector-Profile-Wc-1611-against-Wc-0911

Data powered by Cazana

The chart above reviews retail pricing by market sector profile in the week commencing November 16th in comparison to the previous week. The blue bars show the retail pricing move week on week and the grey bars show the change in retail advert market share based on whole market data. The orange line highlights the current market share as a whole.

The overall retail price movement for the market was a drop of -0.49% which was very slightly higher than the week before and is beginning to become a trend. This is not uncommon for this time of year though and focus should be given to the scale of movements by age and mileage profile to greater understand what is happening. The largest decline in pricing has come in the Ex Fleet Old profile with a decline of 2.11% although this profile accounts for just 0.65% of the whole market as shown by the orange line and therefore has less relevance. The drop of 1.91% in the EX PCP is of more concern given the pressure expected in this age and mileage profile in the early part of next year, but to date has been fairly elastic week on week.

It is the -0.89% shift for the Part Exchange and Old Car profiles that are most relevant given that they account for 50% of the retail advertising market overall. Of the two profiles Old Cars also show an increase in the market share and this is without doubt an area to watch closely and Cazana recommend further and more detailed analysis to spot both the opportunities and the threats.

Taking a different view on the market the chart below looks at retail price changes as a percentage by looking at pricing profile and at the same time compares the same period in 2020 with 2019 as an indicator of market similarity.

Whole-Market-Retail-Price-Change-as-a-by-Price-Range-Wc-1611-against-Wc-0911

Data powered by Cazana

It is important to note that the data included in this analysis covers retail pricing performance of vehicles up to £90k in value, as above this price point the individual vehicle volumes can be low and volatility can be high.

Once again it is the sub £10k price profile that shows the biggest move in the market and this ties with the data in the previous chart which highlighted the Old Car profile was under price pressure. Aside of the fact that the opportunistic market conditions of the post lockdown period may have now passed there is also the consideration that buyers of this type of car are perhaps focussing either on a spending cessation or diverting funds to prepare for the Festive Season.

The chart also shows that there is far greater pricing stability in the higher priced price profiles which is not a surprise given the extra disposable income often available to customers interested in these types of cars at this time of the year.

The comparison against 2019 is interesting on the basis that the same period last year showed enhanced stability overall. The whole market price moves for cars up to £90k in price was, in fact, a drop of just -0.01%.

In conclusion, despite the second lockdown of the year the last weeks retail pricing performance has been reasonably steady. Despite an overall drop of -0.49% this is not an unrealistic retail price decline for the time of year, and retailer sales figures have remained reasonably good given that the showrooms are closed. Wholesale activity has in the most part reflected the level of demand and remarketers from most sectors have chosen to remarket wisely and not just vent cars to the market. However, financial pressures being as they are, some have dropped wholesale expectations and there have been some cheaper generally poor condition cars in the trade.

On the positive side retailers have kept retail pricing largely consistent and this in itself highlights the importance of understanding what retail pricing and consumer demand means to the remarketing operations nationwide. The use of realtime insight is a marvellous, accurate and cost-effective way of ensuring funders, retailers and remarketers are fully aware of fact-based retail pricing trends to facilitate continued enhanced financial return.

Cazana Client Case Study: Harwoods Group

Harwoods Group partnered with Cazana as they wanted to determine how well their vehicles were priced, to review their market positioning and improve their overall efficiency.

Since using Cazana’s valuation tools, the franchised dealership group has gained a deeper insight into the entire market, enabling them to optimise vehicle prices and to reduce their days in stock.

Download our case study today to find out what they have to say about Cazana.


If you’re keen to maximise your stock turn and profit through retail driven retailing, please get in contact via retailpricing@cazana.com.